Trump has made a lot more work for me over the past two years — re-arranging and updating lecture slides. One thing is moving up and emphasizing what a recession is (a 20 year old student doesn’t remember the last one, really), and what current indicators are flashing. (You can imagine what it’s done for my international trade class!)

Here’s some cautionary notes on defining a recession (caution: log scales)
Here are some notes on prediction (caution: probit, Normal distribution!)
Here’s the first midterm the undergrads just took.




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