The Oil Collapse: Why Retail Got Trapped & The "Smart Money" Banked $50k

Now, in today's video, we're going to deep dive back into oil. Just on last Friday, I came out with a video saying

0:23

23 seconds

why I was shorting oil. The comments were vicious. He's a clown. Oil is not going down. Yet today, oil is down over

0:32

32 seconds

10%. All right, this is where the charts and psychology have superiority and where retail investors get emotional.

0:40

40 seconds

They listen to the headlines. They listen to the mainstream media. They listen to social media and it cost them so much money. I was able to make 50K on

0:48

48 seconds

the oil short here that I got in on Friday. And again, congratulations if you followed the charts and my analysis and banked with me. All right, let's get

0:57

57 seconds

right into the charts talking about it here. Oil today down sharply and this was a lot on assessment. So number one,

1:04

1 minute, 4 seconds

the technicals. We're going to go over the technicals here. So number one, you have this reversal candle right here that I've shown you guys. It's called a topping tail. This red one, it's a big surge up where we close in the lower 25%

1:15

1 minute, 15 seconds

of the low to the high. In technical analysis, when that occurs, it basically means there's about a 70% chance that

1:23

1 minute, 23 seconds

the high is in. Then what we get is this down move on that candle and this sideways consolidation that again

1:30

1 minute, 30 seconds

eventually leads to a fall as we see on this candle. So again probability with the bare flag formation the inside bar move that raised it to about a 75%

1:40

1 minute, 40 seconds

chance. Now generally I like 75% opportunities. That's really good odds.

1:45

1 minute, 45 seconds

Like if I were to go in a casino and have 75% odds I'd be there every day,

1:49

1 minute, 49 seconds

right? I mean we all would be. But with trading you can increase the odds even more. And my analysis basically then

1:56

1 minute, 56 seconds

came to the psychology of the president in understanding how he thinks. How does he think? He doesn't like the markets going down. Markets fell on Friday again. Oil going up increases inflation.

2:07

2 minutes, 7 seconds

The midterm elections are coming up. All of these factors added additional probability that he would come out and

2:14

2 minutes, 14 seconds

essentially taco the scenario, right? In terms of saying, listen, let's walk things back. let's say something positive. So, the stock market goes up

2:23

2 minutes, 23 seconds

and oil comes down. So, not only did I have the charts that gave me a 75%

2:28

2 minutes, 28 seconds

probability that essentially we would get a pullback on oil, then you had this whole factor of Trump and essentially not wanting the markets to go down,

2:36

2 minutes, 36 seconds

wanting to get oil prices down, and obviously the midterm elections lurking in the distance. All of this raised the opportunity to 80% that we were going to

2:46

2 minutes, 46 seconds

get a fall on oil. Cha-ching. Lock it in. 50k in the books. All right, going back to the charts. Where is oil going

2:54

2 minutes, 54 seconds

to go now? Listen, oil today down over 10% about 11%. We could see a little bit of a bounce here again depends on if we get more headlines, but what we know is that if oil gets back up to here,

3:04

3 minutes, 4 seconds

chances are you're going to get another truth social post or something positive from Trump. So, basically, if we get a bare flag like this inside of this big

3:13

3 minutes, 13 seconds

down move, I'm going to short it again to the downside. Now, I want to show you something very interesting here. So,

3:20

3 minutes, 20 seconds

this pattern formation is the same one that I was able to use on silver and gold to predict the next leg down. We

3:27

3 minutes, 27 seconds

saw silver today trade as low as $61. I still remember vividly, as many of you do, the comments when silver was even at

3:35

3 minutes, 35 seconds

$90, saying, "Oh, it'll never go back to 50 to 54." Yet today, in one day, we went back to 61 before bouncing back

3:43

3 minutes, 43 seconds

here. But let me show you this because when you start to connect the dots, you become to put you put those yourself in a position to consistently make money no

3:51

3 minutes, 51 seconds

matter what. Right? And again, it's not that you're always going to be right. I certainly am not always right. Please understand that. But again, if I can be

3:58

3 minutes, 58 seconds

right 75 to 80% of the time, that's all I need to be. The money takes care of itself. When you have a win rate like that, you're just going to bet. You bet

4:06

4 minutes, 6 seconds

the same amount on everyone. Like on a blackjack hand, you're always betting $100. $100, right? And if you can win 80% of the time, you're good to go, right? That's just the essence of it.

4:14

4 minutes, 14 seconds

And that's what you want to start to do as an investor or a trader. So when we go to the silver chart, and I'm not going to get into silver too much today.

4:20

4 minutes, 20 seconds

I'll do a video another time. But when you have this same pattern formation that we had on oil. So here was your big drop, right? And then this pattern and

4:30

4 minutes, 30 seconds

then look at the rollover, right? And so now if we go back to the US oil chart.

4:34

4 minutes, 34 seconds

All right, look at this. Here's your same setup, right? down move inside bar.

4:41

4 minutes, 41 seconds

What happens? It rolls over. Okay? And again, it's all about putting those patterns in formation. Same thing with

4:48

4 minutes, 48 seconds

uh gold. Gold again, very similar down move inside bar and there's your rollover. You guys see how patterns

4:56

4 minutes, 56 seconds

repeat? Now, you might say, well, why do patterns repeat? patterns repeat because candles or a chart is a representation of of investors, millions of investors,

5:06

5 minutes, 6 seconds

buyers, sellers, and in general, we have we're all hardwired the same way unless we purposely change our hardwiring. And

5:15

5 minutes, 15 seconds

that's what I've done, right? I've changed it from being an emotional person who's reacting to one that's anticipating and recognizing the pattern formations. And so when we look at this,

5:24

5 minutes, 24 seconds

right, we look at these charts, you have humans just over and over again replicating greed and then fear. Greed

5:32

5 minutes, 32 seconds

and then fear. That's why patterns repeat over and over again. And you can start to gauge the probability of them occurring. So here you had excessive

5:40

5 minutes, 40 seconds

greed, then the flush out, then the oh my goodness, I think we can buy this dip. And then again, that's a bearish

5:47

5 minutes, 47 seconds

pattern that plays out like this. And going back to oil again, it's what enabled me to add extra additional support or structure to the idea that we

5:55

5 minutes, 55 seconds

were due for a rollover in oil. And again, down about 11% on crude oil to $87 a barrel after this morning being above $101 per share. Incredible stuff,

6:07

6 minutes, 7 seconds

guys. I mean, just absolutely incredible in terms of being able to read this on the charts. And I just stress to you guys, most of you out there, not all of

6:16

6 minutes, 16 seconds

you, because a lot of you guys follow me very closely. And that's amazing. And I'm sure your your trading from the comments has improved immensely. And then we have the comments of emotional

6:24

6 minutes, 24 seconds

traders, which are our greatest indicator. Let's be honest, when you see so many comments on that oil video, and by the way, a lot of them have been

6:31

6 minutes, 31 seconds

deleted mysteriously. Um, but when you look at those comments and you see the comments and there's so many of them and it rises to, let's say, eight out of 10

6:40

6 minutes, 40 seconds

saying, "Nope, Garrett's going to be wrong. Iran is not going to do this. The straits aren't going to open, so oil is going to go higher." I look at it and I say, "Yeah, but that's now a signal to

6:49

6 minutes, 49 seconds

me." And I use that to my advantage and it helped me press the push on shorting even more so and making a big score

6:56

6 minutes, 56 seconds

today. But again, very important to understand. All right, quickly. So, we looked at oil, gold, and silver quickly going to the S&P 500 getting a bounce today on the S&P. Great bounce here.

7:07

7 minutes, 7 seconds

Again, if we look at this on support, I am short-term bullish and Friday and over the weekend. And I did a video, by the way, I did a video on Saturday on my

7:15

7 minutes, 15 seconds

YouTube as well, talking about the US dollar was ready to pull back. And sure enough, what you can see, I was doing analysis on this earlier on an interview

7:22

7 minutes, 22 seconds

with KitKo. Uh, but you can see the dollar coming down today and that's helping the market catch a bit. All right, so beautiful move on that. Notice

7:30

7 minutes, 30 seconds

this level here. It was support over here on the US dollar, the DXY. Then it became resistance and again enables me to say, okay, likelihood of a pullback

7:39

7 minutes, 39 seconds

here. And that again obviously is helping the markets rally. Same thing with the 10-year yield. 10-year yield is pulling back a little bit today too. You

7:47

7 minutes, 47 seconds

could see that nice move down. And by the way, just one little tidbit of intrigue here is that if you go to April of 2025 when the tariffs were being implemented,

7:57

7 minutes, 57 seconds

these ridiculously like 100% whatever tariffs that initially Trump was implementing. Um you saw yields on the

8:04

8 minutes, 4 seconds

tenure go to about 4.5% which caused Trump to blink because yields obviously US borrowing money costs go way up.

8:11

8 minutes, 11 seconds

Obviously it hurts the economy. It's just essentially what we're seeing here is the same sort of thing. Yields went

8:17

8 minutes, 17 seconds

from 3.9% to almost 4.5. Trump blinks and starts looking for an out and yields come in. It's amazing how the yield, you

8:25

8 minutes, 25 seconds

could argue that the bond market is actually in control here um dictating the policy moves here. Very very intriguing stuff. Okay, very high level,

8:34

8 minutes, 34 seconds

very institutional in the analysis. All right, I'm going to get going here,

8:37

8 minutes, 37 seconds

guys. But as always, I thank you for tuning in. I thank you for those of you that truly follow me, that make sure again that understand probability,

8:45

8 minutes, 45 seconds

understand what I'm saying.

8:46

8 minutes, 46 seconds

Congratulations if you made money on that oil trade. I certainly did, and I know many of you did as well. Those of you that didn't listen, I would just