September was the kind of month where the usual places to hide didn’t help. Stocks, long Treasuries and gold all ended the month lower.
Below: the month in numbers, how our strategies handled it, and how we are thinking about October.
September Market Review
September in Four Tickers
ETF | September |
|---|---|
SPY (S&P 500) | −0.3% |
DIA (Dow 30) | −4.1% |
TLT (20+ yr Treasuries) | −5.4% |
GLD (Gold) | −6.8% |
The Nasdaq rose 1.9% in September while the Dow fell, so this was not a tech sell-off. The damage was concentrated in the Dow.
Bonds
Last month we wrote that the US 10-year yield was at 4.71%. On the last day of September it was about 5.29%, a new 52-week high. That is near its highest level since 2007, and the 30-year yield reached its highest mark since 2002. Long Treasuries paid for it, with TLT down 5.4% on the month.
Gold
Gold started September strong, with December futures settling near $4,540 on September 3. By the end of the month it was trading around $4,180. GLD finished down 6.8%, giving back much of the August breakout we covered last month.
What was behind it
Surging oil prices, a historic Treasury bond rout and a hawkish turn from the Fed made up the backdrop. The S&P 500 is still less than 2% below its last record close, so equities as a whole held up better than the headlines suggest.
September 2026 Performance
Strategies, Ranked by YTD
Strategy | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|
−0.6% | +14.4% | |
−8.5% | +12.0% | |
0.0% | +8.3% | |
−1.7% | +8.2% | |
−0.2% | +6.9% | |
−1.2% | +6.2% | |
−1.7% | +6.2% | |
−1.0% | +5.5% | |
−0.9% | +5.1% | |
0.0% | +4.6% | |
−0.8% | +4.4% | |
−2.9% | +4.3% | |
−0.2% | +3.8% | |
−2.3% | +3.7% | |
+3.4% | +1.3% | |
−3.4% | +0.5% | |
−2.6% | 0.0% | |
−5.9% | −1.0% | |
−0.8% | −1.5% | |
−5.1% | −1.8% | |
−8.9% | −3.0% | |
−6.6% | −3.9% | |
−5.6% | −19.2% |
Performance based on signals issued by Logical Invest. Slippage and fees are not included.
+14.4%
Best YTD · Dow 30
16 / 23
Positive YTD
+3.4%
Only gainer · Lev. Gold-Currency
0.0%
Hedge & Gold-Currency II
How the Hedge Worked
Many of our strategies use the HEDGE sub-strategy as a variable hedge. It chooses among GLD, TLT and TIPS, and in September it correctly shifted into GSY, the ultra-short-term paper fund that works like cash.
With GLD down 6.8% and TLT down 5.4%, that shift is what enabled our strategies to limit their losses while stocks, bonds and gold declined together.
Seasonality & October
Looking at October: A Scenario, Not a Forecast
September kept its reputation as a volatile month. This year the S&P came in better than that average and the Dow came in far worse.
2026 is also a US midterm election year, with the vote in early November. Historically, the stretch leading into midterms has often been choppy, with a final washout or consolidation low as uncertainty peaks. The months after the vote have often been much stronger.
The Scenario
That pattern gives one scenario: a weak or volatile October, followed by a recovery into year-end.
It is a pattern in past data, not a prediction, and it has not played out every time. This year it has to compete with yields at multi-year highs and a Fed that has not finished deciding how it wants to handle inflation. If yields keep climbing, it could easily fail.
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