The Nasdaq Bear Growls

“Do not try to make circumstances fit your plans. Make plans that fit the circumstances”. – George S. Patton

It’s setting up to be a painful morning for investors in the US and around the world as financial markets are reeling in every corner of the world. It’s safe to say that markets weren’t expecting such a rapid escalation and Russian airstrikes throughout Ukraine, so the negative reaction is warranted. That being said, it’s not as though markets were anywhere near their highs heading into today. The Russell 2000 was already in a bear market, the Nasdaq was knocking on the door, and the S&P 500 was in correction territory.

Economic data this morning was mixed with jobless claims coming in lower than expected, but inflation-related indices like the GDP Price Index and Core PCE both came in higher than expected. Given the macro headlines, though, futures have seen little in the way of an impact.

Based on where futures stand now, the Nasdaq will open for trading with a decline of about 3% putting the index down 21% from its record high back in November. In the history of the index dating back to 1971, this will be the 12th drawdown of 20%+ from a record high in the index’s history. What’s also worth highlighting is that the current drawdown represents the 3rd 20%+ drawdown from a record high in the last 3.5 years.

On a related now, today will also likely mark the fifth straight 1%+ decline for the Nasdaq which is the longest streak of 1% daily declines since October 2008.