The Market’s Declaration Of Independence

On July 2, I held up the Declaration of Independence for our nation’s 250th birthday. There was a method to my madness.

The founders declared the colonies independent from British rule in 1776. This market has quietly declared its own independence too.

Around five months ago, the tape cut itself loose from the forces that used to move it.

Valuation stopped mattering. Data stopped mattering.

I no longer keep economic data on my screen. I stopped looking because it changed nothing.

This weekend I want to show you how to trade when the old anchors are gone.

You will learn to follow money flow instead of headlines.

And this is how you do it…

The independence runs deeper than a single day. The market has stopped honoring the anchors that once governed it.

Here is what it no longer holds to, in my read from today:

Strip those away. You are left with money flow and slope.

Those are the only things the machines obey now.

The MACD is the most important indicator ever designed.

It is never wrong. You are.

Look under the surface, and the independence gets clearer. Almost all of the NASDAQ’s gain this year came from 10 stocks.

Remove those 10 names, and the NASDAQ was flat for the year. Micron (MU) alone drove 25% of the entire move.

General Motors is the ultimate wealth-effect stock. When people feel rich, they buy cars.

The company reported that its EV sales are lagging. Management is forecasting them to get worse.

That warning should have rattled the tape. In an independent market, it did not.

Stocks rallied anyway.

GM is bearish on the monthly. A curl over from here would be an ugly signal for the whole market.

If GM takes out 70, the complexion of the market changes fast. Trouble at GM means trouble almost everywhere.

Microsoft told the same story from a different seat. The news was not subtle.

The company announced it will lay off 5,500 people. That is roughly 2.5% of its global workforce.

Layoffs signal contraction. Healthy companies hire when they are expanding.

The stock climbed anyway. It has already slid from 500 into the 390s.

The rally shrugged off the news entirely.

Fundamentals took a back seat. Rotation and machines took the wheel.

Independence cuts both ways. It frees you to prepare instead of predict.

The institutions have already left tech. Hedge funds dumped US tech stocks at the fastest pace in over a decade.

I hold 50% cash today. My long positions are hedged.

I also carry shorts against them.

If the market gaps lower, I am ready to buy. Cash is what turns a crash into an opportunity.

An independent market rewards preparation over opinion.

Your tools have to track money and momentum. The headlines no longer will.