The Last Month’s June Brent And Kalshi Hormuz Re-Opening Odds

Menzie Chinn
By Menzie Chinn of Econbrowser
Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin •

Brent Crude surged to $118 as Kalshi prediction market odds for a July 1 Strait of Hormuz re-opening dropped to levels not seen since April.

depositphotos_801292698-stock-photo-oil-pump-industrial-equipment-extraction.jpg
Source: DepositPhotos

As of 2 pm CT today:

 

The July 1 probability hasn’t been this low since April 7th, when June Brent was about $111. It’s now about $118.

More from this Author

Major Shocks, Major Real Interest Rate Increases

Major Shocks, Major Real Interest Rate Increases

Menzie Chinn •
Pecking Order And AI Capex Spending

Pecking Order And AI Capex Spending

Menzie Chinn •
“Core GDP” And AI Related Imports And Investment Contribution To GDP

“Core GDP” And AI Related Imports And Investment Contribution To GDP

Menzie Chinn •

Comments

Back to all articles