It was another day of hotter weather trends that helped buoy a natural gas market still digesting a supportive EIA print yesterday. July contract prices only rallied about half a percent on the day but have continued higher post-settle into the electronic close on supportive 12z model guidance.
Interestingly, into the settle it was the January and February contracts that led the way higher, which is something we analyzed for clients in our Pre-Close Update today.
No doubt supportive weather forecasts played a role today, with our Morning Update showing modest overnight GWDD additions that would firm up support today.
As prices dipped early this morning our intraday Note of the Day outlined that the strip was firm enough to allow support down at $2.92 to hold. Prices only got down to $2.932 but proceeded to rally from there into the close.
Afternoon model guidance continued to show very significant long-range heat across the country as well, with the supportive trends on the 12z GEFS shown below (courtesy of the Penn State E-Wall).
This heat has helped cancel out the impact of an increase back higher in natural gas production over the past week (courtesy of the EIA).
In our Pre-Close Update today, we took another look at recent power burns and how we saw weather-adjusted balance looking in the face of this impressive mid-June heat risk. We also looked closer at differing spread movement today, and of course broke down whether these heat risks would intensify or weaken over the weekend, summing them up in our natural gas sentiment and price risk discussion.
Comments
Log in or sign up to join the conversation.