The Geopolitics Super Cycle And What It Means For Gold

Tina Fordham told the GoldCore Summit that the calm investors keep waiting for is not coming back. Tariffs and sanctions rose tenfold between 2010 and the end of 2024 and that trend was underway long before President Trump returned to the White House.

In this full session from the GoldCore Summit, Fordham founder of Fordham Global Foresight, formerly of Citi sets out the case for a geopolitics super cycle: a structural change in trend, not a spike in news noise. The evidence she brings is hard to argue with. A tenfold rise in tariffs and sanctions. A tripling of shocks since the global financial crisis. A doubling of cross-border conflict over the same stretch. None of it was caused by one election.

Fordham then names the behaviour costing investors money: nostalgia bias, the belief that a normal world is one vote away. She breaks down the 2028 waiting game, explains why a new president won't reverse the damage to the transatlantic partnership, and uses Mark Carney's framing of the period as a rupture rather than a transition. From there she maps what replaces the frictionless, just-in-time world a geopolitics lens, higher costs built in, middle powers finding safety in numbers, and China playing a multi-thousand-year game while Washington plays a two-year one.

For gold and silver investors, the useful part is the method. Fordham's argument is that political events are not only risk to be avoided they are a way to see where capital is being repriced before the market catches up. She closes with her political quotient idea: how to read power without becoming a doom scroller.