The EUR/USD continues to range this morning, after the ECB released their decision for key interest rates. As expected, the ECB held rates flat at 0.00%. Now the market is looking towards today’s speech from Mario Draghi, to gain further insight into ECB policy. While this morning’s event did not cause much volatility in the markets, Draghi’s commentary could be the catalyst that causes the Euro to breakout later in today’s session.
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Today’s pivot range begins at the R3 pivot marking resistance at a price of 1.2079. Price action has tested this point 3 times, but so far has failed to breakout higher. In the event that prices stay beneath this value, it opens the EUR/USD to move back towards values of support. The S3 pivot point marks the bottom of today’s 44-pip range, which is found at 1.11639.
It should be noted that bullish breakouts for the session might begin above 1.1230. In this scenario, traders may look for a 1X extension in price to place initial bullish targets near 1.1274. Alternatively, if the EUR/USD breaks lower, traders may look for a move below 1.11418. A move under the R4 pivot would allow traders to again extrapolate 1X today’s range to place bearish breakout targets starting at 1.10978.
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Sentiment for the EUR/USD has remained flat this morning, with SSI (speculative sentiment index) reading at -1.08. With positioning virtually split between long and short positioning, this may signal a continuation of current market conditions. If price action breaks out later today, traders may validated the move with a turn in SSI towards either a positive or a negative extreme.
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