The Encore Performance

A 5% climb this month has pushed the 10-year rolling average for May to its strongest performance level since 1999.

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May marks the onset of the “go away” six-month period for US stocks, when they have historically had weaker-than-average returns. In more recent history, though, it has been the encore performance for the October—April period where market returns have historically shined.

With a 5% gain this month, the S&P 500 (SPY) is on pace for its first-ever "three-peat" of 4%+ gains in May. Not only that, but over the last 14 years, May has only finished in the red once (2019's -6.58%), driving the 10-year rolling average May return to 1.81%, which is the strongest rolling performance for the month since 1999. Your parents may have once told you that it’s never smart to hang around the bars after last call, but in recent years, staying late has paid off. Now about that hangover the next morning...

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