The Daily Shot And Data - May 5, 2016

Greetings,

We begin with several economic trends in the United States.

1. US manufacturing shipments continue to decline (YoY).

2. As discussed before, the manufacturing sector is shedding jobs again. Also, the overall private payrolls from ADP came in below expectations.

Source: ADP

3. Small businesses are once again driving US private payrolls growth.

Source: ADP

4. This Friday we should see how the labor markets performed last month. For now here is SocGen's comment on the US labor force growth.

Source: SocGen

SocGen sees the number of entries into the "not in the labor force" series slowing sharply.

Source: SocGen

5. Next, we have a comment from the Dallas Fed on slow US wage growth.

Source: DallasFed

6. Below are the drivers of US labor costs, as the healthcare inflation rises again.

Source: @BLS_gov

7. According to Goldman, US corporate margins are declining because labor cost increases outpace inflation.

Source: Goldman Sachs

8. US productivity remains stalled.

9. Investment in drilling and O&G exploration has collapsed. Investments related to other commodities such as agriculture have declined as well.

Source: HSBC

However, US private investment outside of commodity-linked sectors continues to grow.

Source: HSBC

10. US trade deficit falls to the lowest level in 13 months .

North of the border, Canada's trade deficit hits a new record. This trend is related to low energy prices which decreased the value of exports. Another driver is the relatively weak Canadian dollar which made imports more expensive.

Source: HSBC

Turning to China, the nation's debt-to-GDP ratio is climbing rapidly. Here is the breakdown by the type of debt.

Source: Goldman Sachs, Business Insider

Many China watchers point out that the GDP growth has become highly dependent on credit growth.

Source: Fitch, h/y Josh

The latest Hong Kong PMI report shows economic contraction again. Below is a summary from Markit Economics.

Source: @MarkitEconomics

In other emerging markets, Brazil's political shakeup continues as the Senate impeachment committee is expected to send the "impeach" recommendation to the full chamber.

Source: Reuters

Do economists expect much change in Brazil after Dilma? Perhaps not. Here is Capital Economics' forecast for the nation's public debt levels.

Source: @CapEconEmerging

The Turkish lira fell to a 2-month low as the prime minister steps down. The stock market didn't do much better.

Australian real estate investment finance growth (YoY) fell sharply, This should allow the RBA to cut rates without becoming concerned about excessive property speculation.

Source: Citi

The chart below shows the ownership breakdown of government securities in Japan. Soon there will be only one owner.

Source: Fitch Ratings

Here is a chart showing negative yields on sovereign debt by country. Amazing ...

Source: Fitch Ratings

Next, we have a few developments in the EU.

1. UK construction PMI came in below consensus. This follows a terrible manufacturing PMI report. The UK's economy is clearly slowing down.

2. Danish real estate price increases continue. Apartment valuations are growing particularly quickly.

Source: @JanStorup

3. Morgan Stanley sees value in Greek bonds, with a significant upside should the paper become eligible for the ECB purchases.

Source: Morgan Stanley (cc Ed Bozaan)

4. Swap-implied deflation risk in the Eurozone is subsiding.

Source: ‏@acemaxx, @business

5. Here is the latest GDP growth breakdown for major EU nations.

Source: ‏@pdacosta, @FT

Turning to the energy markets, US crude oil production finally fell below 9 mbpd. The two charts below represent the same measurement, just on a different time scale.

Source: EIA

Meanwhile, the US crude oil inventory shows no signs of the usual seasonal declines.

Morgan Stanley sees crude oil production starting to rise in 2018 as prices recover.

Source:MorganStanley

In other commodity markets, US corn inventory is at new highs

Source: @SoberLook

At the same time, we see record levels of speculative activity in commodity futures. This could turn ugly if an unwind ensues.

Source: @business

In the currency markets, technicians are asking if this was another "fake breakout" for the dollar index. The Friday's jobs report should help answer this.