The Correlations Between The Fed's Balance Sheet And S&P 500 Comp Index And VIX Becomes Even Tighter

Updating the charts that had my eyes popping: Changes in the Fed balance sheet Granger-causes VIX changes (0.93, corr coef., from 0.926), and explains 86.6% of (R^2), from 86.3%, from March 16, 2020, to-date

Original post:___https://twitter.com/RobertPBalan1/status/1398537810064384001?s=20 ----

1/2 Updating the charts that had my eyes popping: Changes in the Fed balance sheet Granger-causes VIX changes (0.93, corr coef., from 0.926), and explains 86.6% of (R^2), from 86.3%, from March 16, 2020, to-date (below).

 

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2/2 There's now increased corr coef between Fed balance sheet and SPX (0.933, from .914), higher R^2 (87.0% from 83.5%) when there's a 3-week lag. Numbers are weaker w/ no lag I see this lagged effect in my model work. Fed B/S changes impact SPX to max effect only after 3 weeks.Image

 

 

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