The Commodities Feed: European Gas Tops EUR100 As Supply Fears Grow

By Warren Patterson of ING Think

Economic and Financial Analysis • Oct 28, 2026 at 10:20 PM EDT

European natural gas surged past EUR100/MWh as supply risks from Qatar and Norway collide with colder weather forecasts.

European gas prices climbed above EUR100/MWh as mounting supply concerns rattle the market ahead of the 2026/27 winter

European natural gas prices rallied further yesterday, with TTF settling 4.85% higher. Prices broke above EUR100/MWh for the first time since 2022. The market has moved higher, with little sign of imminent relief in Persian Gulf LNG flows. If anything, the outlook appears more dire amid the risk of renewed US strikes on Iran following the US midterm elections next week. Reportedly, QatarEnergy has extended its force majeure for several buyers until the end of the year. It means significant LNG supply disruptions are creeping deeper into the heating season. In addition, several unplanned outages in Norway will add to supply concerns.

Furthermore, forecasts show colder-than-usual weather in Northwest Europe from next week, pushing heating demand higher. This will likely start leading to more sustained drawdowns in storage. EU gas storage is just shy of 75% full. While we’ve had a couple of days of draws in October, winter storage draws have yet to fully get underway.

The key question is whether these higher prices will destroy demand. In power markets, we’re already deep into the gas-to-coal switching range. Industrial demand also shows signs of softening. Chemical company Yara recently reported curtailments of ammonia production in Europe due to high gas prices. This led the company’s European gas consumption to fall more than 7% YoY in 3Q26. This trend is expected across European industry, especially with gas prices even higher now.

Unsurprisingly, given the move in natural gas prices, investment funds increased their net long in TTF by 14.3TWh over the last reporting week to 207.4TWh. Fresh buying drove the increase, with gross long rising by a little more than 20TWh, while gross short also edged higher.

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