Let’s discuss the striking volatility in long-term bond yields today.
What Happened?
The timing of Trump’s obliterate “Truth” (Yes, that’s the idiotic name for posts on Truth Social) was Mar 21, 2026, 5:44 PM.
Note that If someone posted “Trump is a fool” that would constitute a “Truth” as well.
On March 23, 2026, 5:23 AM Trump was pleased to report Two Days of “very good and productive conversations with Iran regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities.”
Amusing Aspects
Trump threatens a war crime. Think about that one.
He did so in the midst of allegedly “very good and productive conversations” with Iran. Think about that one, too.
Iran denies the conversations.
Trump will not name the Iranian mediators the US is allegedly negotiating with. Do they exist anywhere but Trump’s mind?
History Recap
March 6, 2026 6:50 AM: Trump Says No Deal except ‘UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER’
Truth Social: There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER! After that, and the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s), we, and many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners, will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before. IRAN WILL HAVE A GREAT FUTURE. “MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN (MIGA!).” Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
‘Unconditional Surrender’
March 6: 2026: Irony of the Day: Trump Demands ‘Unconditional Surrender’ by Iran Without Declaring War
Please note the US has not declared war yet. And declaration of war is the constitutional responsibility of Congress, not the president.
Trump was seriously stupid enough to believe the war would be over in a few days. Trump ignored military advice and instead said that he “had a feeling”.
Instead of taking military advice, Trump listened to his son-in-law Jared Kushner, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Senator Ted Cruz, and Senator Lindsey Graham.
When the results totally blew up in Trump’s face, Trump started seeking a way out.
On the escalate-to-deescalate theory, Trump threatened war crimes.
Trump to ‘Obliterate’ Iran’s Power Plants if Strait Not Open in 48 Hours
March 21, 2026: Trump to ‘Obliterate’ Iran’s Power Plants if Strait Not Open in 48 Hours
The threat, if carried out, would “likely constitute war crimes”, says Grok.
Regarding War Crimes
Regarding war crimes, I posted Grok’s synopsis. Click the above link for Grok’s superb analysis.
Furthermore, a constitutional law expert friend, who is much more of a hawk on military interventions than others in the email conversation below, had this to say.
You know that I often disagree with [names redacted] on repeated assertions that US military actions are war crimes. International law is complex, fact-specific and very seldom does the US clearly violate international law. And I hate hyperbole.
But the threatened strikes would have been black and white lay-down war crimes. The Geneva Convention forbids strikes against civilian infrastructure calculated to threaten the lives of civilians to pressure concessions. Trump very specifically laid that out as the intent of his proposed strikes. It’s really mind-boggling.
That brings us to this morning.
Trump Postpones Strikes on Iran, Claims Progress in Talks that Iran Denies
The markets are pleased with progress on Iran that Iran denies.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry denied Tehran was in talks with the U.S., according to state media, saying there was “no dialogue” with Washington.
So, someone is lying. Perhaps both sides. Such is the nature of war.
But lies are always the nature of Trump. He is indeed the world’s biggest liar.
After begging for help, with denials everywhere, a Delusional Trump Now Says “WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE!”
It’s not just on Iran. Trump lies about inflation, oil, food prices, Canada, Greenland, literally everything.
This prompted me to write The World’s Biggest Liar Accuses the Media of Lies and Treason
“Whatever he does, he accuses everyone else of doing,” said Senator Ted Cruz.
Please check out in the above link the amazing list of people who nailed Trump for what he is, only to becomes the world’s biggest Trump suckups.
Returning to the Bond Market
The gyrations today are one for the record books.
The 30-year long bond finished about 4.912 percent, giving up about half the maximum gain.
Trump says Iran desperately wants a deal. I am sure that is a lie even if discussions are taking place.
Since Trump just gave Iran 5 more days, I expect Iran to take them.
Iran has no reason to believe any deal that Trump makes. Nor does any other country in the world.
Iran would be wise to say no to any deal unless Congress puts it in writing and Trump signs off on it.
For What?
That’s the Trumpian stupidity of it all. The best Trump can hope for is something similar to the deal President Obama negotiated.
Even if the deal is worse, MAGA will cheer.
But the oil markets, natural gas markets, diesel fuel, and fertilizer markets will not return to pre-war conditions for many months even if there is a deal soon.
The short-to intermediate damage is done. The situation won’t be normal by election time.
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