The total revision was -79,000. This is the smallest benchmark revision since 2021.
The BLS reports the Preliminary Benchmark Revision for March of 2026 (from March 2025) is -79,000 total jobs.
The preliminary estimate of the Current Employment Statistics (CES) national benchmark revision to total nonfarm employment for March 2026 was -79,000 (-0.1 percent)
The preliminary benchmark revision for total private employment was -178,000 (-0.1 percent).
The annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have an absolute average of 0.2 percent of total nonfarm employment.
In accordance with usual practice, the final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2027 with the publication of the January 2027 Employment Situation news release.
Benchmark Revisions
March benchmark | Final revision | Final % | Preliminary revision | Prelim % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | −81,000 | −0.1% | −150,000 | −0.1% |
2017 | +135,000 | +0.1% | +95,000 | +0.1% |
2018 | −16,000 | ~0% | +43,000 | ~0% |
2019 | −489,000 | −0.3% | −501,000 | −0.3% |
2020 | −121,000 | −0.1% | −173,000 | −0.1% |
2021 | −7,000 | ~0% | −166,000 | −0.1% |
2022 | +506,000 | +0.3% | +462,000 | +0.3% |
2023 | −187,000 | −0.1% | −306,000 | −0.2% |
2024 | −598,000 | −0.4% | −818,000 | −0.5% |
2025 | −861,000 | −0.5% | −911,000 | −0.6% |
2026 | final due Feb 2027 | — | −79,000 | −0.1% |
Key Benchmark Synopsis
2022 was hugely positive due to a Covid rebound, a birth-death model that performs poorly at economic turns.
Household and establishment collection rates fell after Covid. QCEW is UI tax records, so it does not have a survey response problem; CPS (household) and CES (payroll) surveys both do.
2024 and 2025 were hugely overcounted due to huge birth-death model errors on top of CES survey response rate issues.
Huge immigration-related CPS population adjustments in 2022, 2023, and 2025 compounded cross-survey comparisons.
2026 still shows a CES overcount, mostly on the private side (178,000) compared to 79,000 total.
Large Annual Revisions Are Over
Looking ahead, I expect benchmark revisions will get smaller because job creation and turnover are both anemic.
The BLS has also modified their birth-death model.
For the 2027, I am eyeing something like 2017, 2018 or 2021, ± 0.1 percent.
Related Posts
July 2, 2026: 2026 Jobs Market: What’s Hot, What’s Not, and What’s Shaky?
There’s some interesting changes so far this year compared to 2025.
August 7, 2026: Another Weak Jobs Report, Payrolls Down 23,000 and Employment Down 87,000
On top of the weak headline numbers, revisions were negative 103,000.
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