Pawel Skrzypczinski admonishes us, and correctly so. Computer, peripheral, and part imports are surging for now. In 2000, imports peaked a quarter before investment did.
Figure 1: Imports of computers, peripherals and parts (blue, left log scale), and lagged 26 years (red, right log scale), in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR, on log scale. Source: BEA, 2026Q1 3rd release.
Note the steepening upward slope is to be taken in the context of the log scales.
Looking at disaggregated trade data, computers, semiconductors, telecom equipment, electric apparatus, and computer accessories, we see no slowdown so far; YTD April 2026 is up 59% relative to the previous.
Figure 2: Computer, computer accessories, semiconductor chips, telecommunication equipment, electric apparatus imports, in mn$, April year-to-date. Source: BEA.
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