Tech Now Accounts For Two-Thirds Of The US Trade Deficit

By James Knightley of ING Think

Economic and Financial Analysis • Nov 4, 2026 at 12:45 PM EST

The US tech trade deficit hit $64 billion in September, accounting for two-thirds of the nation's total trade gap.

There has been a lot of commentary about the contribution of tech investment to GDP growth, but with the US running a trade deficit of $64bn in September in tech products alone, out of an overall trade deficit of $105bn, we need to remember that this aspect actually subtracts from growth. Instead, it is a boon to the likes of Korea and Taiwan

Tech imports fuelling the surge in the trade deficit

The US trade balance figures don't normally get hearts racing, but I think this chart below is astonishing. The US trade deficit was $105bn in September, of which $64bn was due to a deficit in computers, peripherals and semiconductors. The chart shows how imports of tech products that are destined for data centres around the country have not merely gone exponential, but almost vertical. Less than two years ago, the US was importing around $20bn per month of these products. In September, it was $87bn.

US tech imports ($bn)

Source: Macrobond, ING

Tech imports offsetting much of the capex boost within GDP

So while there is lots of discussion about how much the tech/AI/data centre investment blitz is boosting growth, much of the value added is coming from overseas. This is a net negative for US growth as money is flowing out of the country to the likes of Korea and Taiwan, from which US imports are up 35% and 60% respectively.

The result is the chart below showing the contribution to year-on-year US GDP growth. The black line is the YoY% growth rate with the blue bars showing the contribution from tech capex and AI token spending (including the chips going into data centres). The purple section is the data centre building (the concrete, steel, etc), but then there is the net exports section in orange, which, because of the scale of the trade deficit in tech, is a significant drag on overall growth right now – much of it actually ended up in inventory building of tech products that will be used in coming quarters.

Consequently, the US tech roll-out has been a huge boost to tech-orientated exporting nations. Only three years ago, the US was a net exporter of tech products!

Tech capex contribution to GDP is being offset by a surge in tech imports

Source: Macrobond, ING

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