USD/CHF extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 0.8320 during European hours on Tuesday. The pair is moving higher as the US Dollar (USD) gains momentum, largely driven by a surge in safe-haven demand amidst escalating geopolitical conflicts. Volatility returned to global financial markets following reports from Xinhua News Agency that Yemen's Houthi group launched coordinated missile and drone strikes against Saudi Arabian military bases, an oil facility, and major airports. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree confirmed a hit on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh that disrupted local air traffic, prompting investors to flock to traditional safe-haven assets like the Greenback.
Adding to the dollar's strength is a significant rally in US Treasury yields, which have reached fresh 24-year highs. This surge in yields stems from a persistent global bond selloff fueled by expanding fiscal deficits and persistent inflationary pressures. The latest ISM data further reinforced these inflation concerns, showing that input costs in the US services sector recently increased at their fastest pace in more than four years.
Despite the firm US Dollar and elevated yields maintaining market control, rate expectations remain somewhat constrained. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in roughly a 78% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting, following a series of softer labor market reports.
On the other side of the USD/CHF pair, the Swiss Franc (CHF) is also positioned to attract safe-haven inflows due to mounting fiscal anxieties across Europe. Escalating energy prices are compounding fears regarding government expenditures and debt affordability among Switzerland's European neighbors. As risk aversion dominates market sentiment during this period of heightened instability, the Swiss currency continues to serve as a preferred refuge for global investors.
Franc support builds as France debt worries overshadow SNB shift
Strategists at DBS highlight that “softer US inflation and payrolls coincided with France’s sovereign debt concerns,” reinforcing demand for the Swiss Franc as a defensive play. They note that EUR/CHF “declined for a third consecutive week as widening French OAT-Bund spreads outweighed the Swiss National Bank’s decision to buck the global tightening cycle and to temper its CHF intervention rhetoric,” underscoring how political and fiscal anxieties in France are dominating the cross despite the SNB’s more accommodative stance.
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