Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin•
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Polymarket assigns a 97% probability to a Strait of Hormuz closure by March 31 as maritime traffic plummets. Bloomberg Economics predicts oil prices could surge to $108 per barrel if the supply disruption is sustained.
Polymarket (8pm CT 3/6) reads 97% probability of closure by 3/31, as defined by the contract as an 80% reduction in 7 day moving average in traffic.
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