Stocks, Commodities And Precious Metals; Big Changes Coming

Stocks, commodities and precious metals are bullish, as anticipated, but post-election balance will shift

It’s all been bullish after the summer swoon, as anticipated. While one reliable indicator we track (a smoothing of the Equity Put/Call ratio using moving averages) has failed to crack SPX into a proper correction, indexes like the SOX and NDX did crack hard. SPX internally rotated its way out of trouble.

From AI-driven Semiconductors to a Software bottom, base and rally. From big Tech (especially AI Hyperscalers) cycling back in, to Healthcare segments like BioPharma and Medical Devices. From gold, silver and gold stocks… to the commodities that they lead. *

This bore out the NFTRH theme of being diversified in line with the market’s internals, as my personal positioning merely chopped through the correction, much like SPX did. As for the longer gold stock correction (since January), we mostly sat that out as it was very easy to see coming at the time.

* I leave out crude oil because that market was driven berserk by an ill-advised war. Our preference in commodities is and has been critical mineral (Cu, u3o8, Ni, REE, Li, PGM, etc.) producers and explorers.

Gold/SPX

The above is a brief review of where we’ve been up to the present moment. Where we ARE is an inflection point, where gold has been expected to hold this targeted low in relation to SPX. Whether the Gold/SPX (GLD/SPY) ratio holds here and turns up promptly or grinds around, waiting to do so perhaps after the election, this is a view of greatly reduced risk in gold and increased risk in stocks.

But first, nominal stock markets are expected to put on a bull show into the mid-terms. Wizards Warsh & Bessent are (in my opinion) busily at work laying the groundwork in the form of deregulated banks freer to lend into the economy, with the big beautiful pork bill also ready to stimulate, along with whatever… shall we say “adjustments” they may wish to make to the Treasury market if more liquidity is needed.

Gold/Commodities (and Silver)

Rather than show gold in relation to a basket of commodities, let’s check out the one indication that will be a tailwind for most of the commodity complex (again excluding oil as it shakes off war’s inputs), not to mention the precious metals as well.

Just as we were able to spot the likelihood of a broad commodity and stock market rally (following the precious metals, which led the whole show) well ahead of time in 2025, after silver tanked vs. gold, based, and was due for a rebound, the same may hold true in 2026.

You can see the 2026 tankage. Now, pending this little shaded pattern, may come the rebound. RSI seems to think it’s coming sooner rather than later. Precious metals bulls have been cast into the arid desert of correction for half a year. That is fertile ground for the rally, as risk has been ground out of the precious metals all year.

At this very moment gold stocks are breaking out left and right. Various critical commodity stocks are ramping. Stock markets are recovering.

That is well, good and fun. But if silver gets a move on vs. gold, you ain’t seen nuthin’ yet. Our bull target has been to/through the mid-term election, much as it was in 2024 with the presidential. Back then the Biden admin did all it could to stimulate. Today, Trump’s hench-wizards are doing the same, by different means.

A bullish Silver/Gold ratio would also be a tailwind for many global markets and a headwind for the US dollar. This is what I imagine the tricks employed by the Wizards boiling down to, currency devaluation. The oldest trick in the book.

After the dust settles on the election and perhaps 2026, I expect the story to become much darker for the stock market, at least. Gold has re-built its lower-risk haven appeal in taking an extended bath vs. stocks. This is the big picture macro view, after all:

We anticipated all of this; the breakdown in the SPX/Gold ratio, the rebound and now the expectation is for failure in 2027, if not sooner. Stocks may not go bearish nominally, but they will vastly under-perform gold.