Stocks retraced the bounce from yesterday, but managed to hold at key support levels.
We may be one exogenous event away from significant market dislocation.
Precipitous declines of 10+% are always lower probability events, but sometimes the tails are a little fatter than at other times.
Gold and silver bounced. Silver in particular was impressive since it diverged from stocks.
The VIX fell.
There is no panic selling yet. I suspect the specs are buying the dips.
I came in short from last night and got a little shorter on the early bounce. I trimmed back a bit for the weekend.
If the major stock indices break below further key supports with the right kind of tension on the tape I will try to start calculating just what kind of decline we may be facing.
The Fed is active in the markets. But even they have a limited ability to respond to a significant event.
Stock index option expiration next Thursday.
As next week is Holy Week I will be posting but it may be late or abbreviated.
Have a pleasant weekend.
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