Stocks soared for the State of the Union, and then promptly flopped.
VIX ticked back up, but was well off its high.
The Dollar spiked again in the afternoon and then back down to nearly unchanged.
Bitcoin seems to be firmly locked into a rather narrow trading range. I have been playing swings in it for a while now, and its a good earner, as the mob bosses would say. Fitting, because crypto does seems like organized crime.
Gold and silver caught a bid.
While the domestic economic data is interesting and all that, it is the geo-political factors that will be weighing most heavily on the risk markets and the precious metals.
Vance and Rubio have been hitting on the FUD factor (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) in support of a war with Iran that is very reminiscent on the drumbeats for the war with Iraq in 2003. Which was also a bunch of hoo-haw.
He-who-must-not-be-named wants this war, and has been lobbying for it since the 1990s.
Trump doesn't want to do it, and his generals know it is a tactical headache, but here we are.
The volatility in this market must be unsettled for the average punter. It reminds me of other late-stage bubbles we have known and loved.
Keep your leverage low, your positions flexible, and always, always avoid taking 'the big hit.' It can wipe out many years of trading profits almost overnight.
Have a pleasant evening.
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