The rumors spread about an imminent deal with Iran by high-ranking officials of the government, including the cleverly worded statement by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, were greatly exaggerated.
But it did provide the opportunity to once again crush the price of crude oil to a price that, from what I hear and see, is not available for actual physical delivery just about anywhere.
There seems to be a lot of that going around these days. Such are the times, and the purposeful fog of war.
There were missiles flying and tankers sinking today. If you did not know this and the recent announcement from Iran on the Strait of Hormuz, then you may wish to find another source of news - or be content to operate on faulty information.
So we had quite the pop and flop in stocks day, with new highs fading quickly into the red as the false underpinnings of the rally faded.
Ok, so the reckoning with oil supply is likely to become more noticeable in a few weeks. But the general deterioration of the economy and the nature of the AI tech bubble is very apparent.
Gold and silver rallied sharply. Before I draw too many strong conclusions about this, I want to see how they perform through the Non-Farm Payrolls report this Friday, a traditional event for metals smashing.
SpaceX (SPCX) popped and then flopped back to the distribution trendline. There are more shares coming out of 'lockup' in the near term than were issued at the time of the IPO.
But the problem is really that the underpinnings of the AI tech rally are just not sustainable or even realistic. It seems to be a classic 'new era' stock bubble.
Ray Dalio and Michael Burry see this. With well-deserved humility, I see it as well.
I am fairly convinced that there is going to be a reckoning of memorable proportions later this year, on a scale with other significant financial adjustment events of the past, as Dalio indicates.
The power elite are feeling good and giddy with success.
If there are damned souls in Hell, it is because men blind themselves.
Have a pleasant evening.
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