Stock Market Optimism Near Top

The stock market is making a new all-time high again today. There is no fear about the China trade deal anymore with a potential phase 1 in the works, no fear about the Federal Reserve after they said the days of higher rates are over and they would continue with QE (buying treasuries). In addition, earnings were decent, not a disaster and the jobs report was solid. So what could derail this market?

Concerns:

1. The Greed & Fear Index is maxing out. This takes into account multiple technical signals. When there is too much greed it means something is lurking.
2. 2020 elections are coming and the market will begin to worry about Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders's presidency. Joe Biden looks to be running short on funds and does not have the excitement of the other two candidates. Any hint at future regulation under a Democratic president could send the markets tumbling into 2020.
3. What if’s…What if the China deal doesn’t go as smoothly as expected? What if the Repo market panic that the Fed is bailing outspreads? What if Brexit does not go smoothly? What if the global economy does not recover and lastly, what if earnings don’t rebound as expected? The market is not factoring in any of these at the current time.
4. Why isn’t Warren Buffet putting to work some of his $120+ Billion in cash? Buffet obviously does not think there is any company worth buying. He loves to add new companies to his portfolio but is not, even with a mountain of cash. This should be a concern for investors.
5. The VIX is nearing historic lows. Historically, when the VIX falls this low, something is about to pop.