Stock Analysis: Takeda Pharmaceutical

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Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd bears the ticker symbol TAK, and this is my first mention of Takeda for this new Viking Portfolio. I have, however, selected TAK for one of my previous seven dog of the week portfolios.

Takeda Pharmaceutical is Japan’s largest pharmaceutical company, with revenue of JPY 3.6 trillion in fiscal 2021. The company’s five core therapeutic areas are oncology, gastroenterology, neuroscience, rare diseases, and plasma-derived therapies, which account for more than 80% of revenue. Its geographic footprint is well diversified, with 50% derived from the U.S., 20% from Japan, 20% from Europe, and Canada.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited was founded in 1781 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Three key data points gauge

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd:

(1) Price

(2) Dividends

(3) Returns

Those three basic keys best tell whether any company has made, is making, and will make money.

TAK Price

Takeda’s price per share was $16.21 at Monday’s market close. In the past year, Takeda’s share price increased by $1.73, or about 12%.

If Takeda’s stock trades in the range of $12.00 to $20.00 this next year, its recent $16.21 share price might reach $17.70 by next year. That upside estimate of $1.49 is within $0.05 of the median of one-year target estimates from four analysts covering TAK for brokers.

TAK Dividends

Takeda’s most recent semi-annual dividend of $0.33 casts a forward annual yield of 4.07%.

TAK Returns

Adding the $0.66 annual estimated Takeda dividend to my one-year price upside estimate of $1.49 reveals a $2.15 potential gross gain estimate per share.

At Monday’s $16.21 closing price, a little over $1000 would buy 62 shares.

A $10 broker fee (if charged), paid half at purchase and half at sale, might cost us about $0.16 per share.

Subtract that maybe $0.16 brokerage cost from my estimated $2.15 gross gain makes a net gain of $1.99 X 62 shares = $123.38 for a 12.3% net gain including a 4.07% annual dividend yield.

In the next year, our $1K investment in shares of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd would generate $40.70 in cash dividends. Of course, a single share of TAK stock at Monday's $16.21 price is over two and one-half times less than the estimated annual dividend income from our $1000.00 investment.

So, by my dogcatcher ideal, this looks like a good time to buy Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd shares based on their dividends for 2023. The current dividend from $1K invested is 2.51 times greater than the TAK single share price. Consider yourself alerted.

All of the estimates above are speculation based on the past history of investment in shares of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd. Only time and money invested in this stock will determine its future market value.

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