As you probably know, SpaceX (SPCX) has had a terrible time of it, having fallen well more than 50% from its peak price and currently very near lifetime lows. This has all taken place even without a single share from any insiders being available to sell, which represents about 95% of the shares. So, things could get even worse starting tomorrow, when those shares are free.
The thing is, this isn’t a particularly horrible performance for an IPO. In fact, it’s quite typical, which makes it all the more extraordinary that people lose their minds with excitement about new stock offerings. They are almost guaranteed losers, as mountains of empirical data prove.
I suspect that, years down the road, SPCX will be a very fine stock. For the foreseeable future, however, I think it’s going to continue to absolutely stink, and there’s just no telling how much more sliding is in store once those billions of insider shares become available to sell in the months ahead.
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