On June 12, according to NBC, SpaceX set its final IPO price at $135 per share on Thursday, marking the final stage of Elon Musk's Space and Artificial Intelligence Group going public.
The company, which also owns the X social media network, will begin trading on Friday, with a valuation reaching $1.77 trillion. This initial public offering (IPO) is not only a test for Musk himself, but will also become the latest major test of the ongoing boom in artificial intelligence.
This may also test the market's own operational mechanisms.
In 2012, when Facebook conducted a large-scale IPO on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange, it was delayed due to technical failures. SpaceX will also trade on Nasdaq, with its size expected to be three times that of its largest IPO before.
But the impact of this IPO goes far beyond the initial transaction.
For years, SpaceX has mainly been open to venture capital firms, institutional investors, and a minority of private shareholders. Now, ordinary investors will have the opportunity for the first time to invest in one of the world's most closely watched companies.
"The world will eventually understand and accept what we have been focusing on for years." Dan Hansen, Senior Portfolio Manager at Newberg Berman, said his fund invested in SpaceX when it was still a private company.
Hansen stated that investors should not view SpaceX merely as a rocket company, but as a combination of launch operations, Starlink satellite internet networks, and AI ambitions.
"This team is just getting started." he said. "They have a great opportunity to create value during execution."
Not everyone agrees with this view. Even before its release, some doubted whether the work broke the boundaries of reality.
Morningstar's analysts wrote last week that, given the company's financial condition, they believe the company is overvalued.
SpaceX originally planned to be valued at over $2 trillion at IPO, but was later revised down to about $1.7 trillion. For reference, the company has yet to turn a profit, with revenue of about $19 billion last year.
Analysts write: We value SpaceX at $780 billion.
"SpaceX's initial issuance was small, supported by nearly all investment banks worldwide, with strong investor demand for AI infrastructure projects, and an unprecedented inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index just 15 trading days after the IPO. We expect SpaceX's stock price to remain stable after the company spins off or even gets back on track, at least for a while." The authors continued.
The company's outstanding shares refer to the number of shares the company is open to the public for purchase.
Unlike most large IPOs, SpaceX is expected to reserve an unusually large proportion of shares for individual retail investors.
The company plans to achieve about 30% retail investor participation, while typical IPOs typically have retail participation rates close to 10%.
"30% is actually quite high." Edward Best, Co-Chairman of Capital Markets at Wilkey Law Firm, stated.
The biggest beneficiary of this issuance is Musk himself. He holds nearly 850 million Class A shares, each with one vote. Additionally, he holds another 5.6 billion Class B shares, each with 10 votes, including 1 billion shares with conditions, based on a highly unlikely bet: SpaceX will establish a colony of one million people on Mars.
This listing will grant Valor Management founder and CEO Antonio Gracias 503.4 million shares, with his holdings valued at nearly $68 billion at the IPO price. Other major shareholders expected to benefit from this historic offering include SpaceX board member and investor Luke Nosek (holding 33 million shares) and Chief Operating Officer Gwynne Shotwell (holding nearly 12.6 million shares).
The IPO will also generate substantial returns for about 400 venture capitalists who supported the company during its twenty years as a private entity, during which it raised approximately $40 billion in private capital.
Additionally, a large number of small investors supporting SpaceX through special purpose vehicles (SPVs) will see a doubling of initial investments. However, due to the complexity of these special purpose companies, some investors may not be able to know the exact scale of SpaceX's earnings within months after going public.
Additionally, many small investors who invest in SpaceX through Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) may see their initial investments multiply. However, only after the company's phased lock-up period ends do some investors know the scale of their earnings, and even determine whether they are entitled to these gains.
Traders on the prediction market platform Polymarket believe the stock price will soar. Traders believe its stock price could far exceed the $1.77 trillion figure on its first day of listing.
According to Polymarket traders, there is an 84% probability that SpaceX's market cap will close above $1.8 trillion, and a 69% chance it will exceed $2 trillion.
Based on an expected initial market value of $1.77 trillion, SpaceX's first-day market cap reached about $2 trillion, representing a 13% increase in stock price. Pre-IPO perpetual futures on the Hyperliquid platform show that SpaceX's stock price could have risen by more than 20% on its first day of listing.
If SpaceX's market capitalization closes above $2 trillion, it will join the elite club. Currently, only five American companies can achieve this—Nvidia, Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon—with valuations exceeding $2 trillion.
SpaceX's $2 trillion valuation will also put it ahead of chip giant Broadcom.
SpaceX's valuation reached as high as $1.85 trillion. Even based on the expected initial valuation of $1.77 trillion, SpaceX's scale would surpass Musk's electric vehicle flagship Tesla. According to FactSet data, Tesla's market value was about $1.72 trillion late Thursday. (Translated by Bian Niusi and AI Pris)
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