Last week was filled with significant information in earnings, investor sentiment, inflation, interest rates, economic growth, geopolitics, and important technical milestones. However, often times, it’s what doesn’t happen that matters more than what does.
Weekly Market Outlook — Key Takeaways
Gold (GLD) and Gold Miners (GDX) had extraordinary weekly moves. GLD had its biggest weekly move since the week of January 23, 2026, while GDX had its largest weekly move since December 2008. Interestingly, some of gold’s biggest historical weekly moves occurred near the beginning of very good periods for stocks.
QQQ and the Risk-On sectors had their biggest weekly gains since peaking in early June, even without a significant rally in the 10- or 30-year bonds following a weaker-than-expected labor report. Earnings enthusiasm is helping, but this is still not an “everything rally.”
Technology leadership is changing. The resurgence in tech isn’t being led by exactly the same stocks that drove the market earlier this year. Different is okay. Maybe even better.
The July Calendar Ranges continue to provide an excellent roadmap for markets that are challenging some long-standing historical intermarket relationships.
One of the reasons markets can be counterintuitive, and as a result make sense to some while confusing so many others, is that price action is a function of several very different factors.
Furthermore, the significance of each factor is more often a function of its relative weight or change than an absolute number.
More simply put — in the markets, everything is relative.
Last week was filled with potentially confusing, but also very telling, statements about investor sentiment and what may drive the direction of the stock market in the coming months.
For example...
Friday’s labor report was surprisingly weak, yet the long bonds didn’t react by pushing rates lower, or bond prices higher, as one might logically expect.
In the prior week, the bond market had been signaling concern that the Fed should raise rates.
The Fed pushed back at its FOMC meeting by suggesting that it wasn't close to raising rates.
Now, weaker-than-expected labor market data reduces the pressure to raise rates and adds to the shift in sentiment that has been developing over the last two weeks — from concern about a hawkish Fed to expectations that the Fed can remain on hold.
If you’re a stock investor, you like lower rates and a Fed that is not anxious to raise them.
If you’re a gold investor who believes the Fed won’t be aggressive in fighting inflation by raising rates, then higher inflation, stable long-term bonds, and a Fed on hold is music to your ears.
Often times, it’s what doesn’t happen that matters more than what does.
Last week gave us another excellent example.
SpaceX (SPCX) reported earnings Tuesday after the close. Its losses were less than expected, but capital expenditures were higher than expected.
Increased capex combined with negative free cash flow has been some of the worst news a growth company could give investors recently.
SPCX fell only modestly the next day, then rallied Thursday.
The pattern created a nice double bottom, but earnings weren’t what SPCX bulls feared most.
They feared the unlocking of more than 900 million shares held by pre-IPO owners.
That represents an enormous amount of potential selling.
On Friday, the first big unlock occurred.
The stock rallied 15%.
Where is all the feared insider selling?
This is the same idea as "sell the rumor, buy the news", but better because no news is good news here.
If this lack of selling holds next week, this is a big buy signal based on a shift in investor sentiment on top of an earnings report that received a bearish response that didn’t follow through to the downside, then reversed higher.
If this buy pattern is good, SPCX should not trade under Friday’s low and certainly not below the all-time high low.
Investors looking for a pullback from the IPO got their 50% correction from its high. Look for the bottom to confirm next week.
Comments
Log in or sign up to join the conversation.