Before the market opened, the latest new jobless claims report was a bit better than expected and European markets were rallying. The S&P 500 followed suit, rallying at the open and trading higher through the day to its 1.24% close, just fractionally off its 1.28% intraday high shortly before the bell. Today's rally comes in advance of tomorrow's big employment report for January. The mainstream consensus is for 175K-185K new nonfarm jobs. My forecast? A beat will be good news, and a miss will probably be dismissed as weather related.
The yield on the 10-year note rose 3 bps to 2.73%. The interim high was 3.04% at the end of 2013.
Here is a snapshot of the week so far. The index is down 0.51%
Here is a daily chart of the SPY ETF, where volume gives a better sense of investor sentiment. The 2014 daily declines have generally come on substantially higher volume than the advances.
Here is a look at the S&P 500 drawdowns (percent off highs) since the market bottom on March 9, 2009. I've highlighted the declines in excess of 5%.
The S&P 500 is now down 4.05% for 2014.
Here is a longer perspective, starting with the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.
For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here's a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.
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