S&P 500 Snapshot: A Fractional "Wait-And-See" Gain

The US equity trade appears to be in wait-and-see mode, still cogitating over the weak May jobs report and Fed Chair Yellen's relatively upbeat view of the US economy. The Dow gained a fractional 0.10% while the Nasdaq slipped a fractional 0.14%. Our preferred benchmark S&P 500 rose at the open and moved in modest rally mode to its 0.47% intraday high in the early afternoon. The index then gave back most of the gains to close with a 0.13% advance. Today's lethargy notwithstanding, the 500 is now only 0.88% from its record close in May of last year.

The 10-year note closed at 1.72%, down one basis point from the previous close.

Here is a snapshot of past five sessions in the S&P 500.

Here's a chart of the SPY ETF, which gives a sharper view of investor particiaption in today's market (in)action. Trading volume on the index was 12% below its 50-day moving average. But volume in the ETF trade was 37% below its 50-day MA. That's the lowest volume since Christmas eve and further evidence of the wait-and-see mindset.

A Perspective on Drawdowns

Here's a snapshot of selloffs since the 2009 trough.

Here is a more conventional log-scale chart with drawdowns highlighted.

Here is a linear scale version of the same chart with the 50- and 200-day moving averages.

A Perspective on Volatility

For a sense of the correlation between the closing price and intraday volatility, the chart below overlays the S&P 500 since 2007 with the intraday price range. We've also included a 20-day moving average to help identify trends in volatility.