S&P 500 See-Saws As Geopolitical Tensions Build

The S&P 500 see-sawed during the trading week ending on Friday, 27 February 2026. The index ended the week at 6,878.88, down 0.44% from where it closed the preceding week as geopolitical tensions built during the week.

If not for Friday, the rises and falls of stock prices would have cancelled out, leaving the index essentially flat for the week. But Friday was a down day for the S&P 500. Oil prices surged along with an increased potential for military action between the U.S. and the Islamic regime that has controlled Iran since 1979, as negotiations to avoid conflict showed little progress.

Even with that development, the change in stock prices was muted. latest update of the alternative futures chart shows the S&P 500 is close to the middle of the redzone forecast range we recently added to account for the echoes of volatility from last year's DeepSeek AI shock and "Liberation Day" global tariff shock on its projections.

This compensation is necessary because the dividend futures-based model behind the projections shown on the alternative futures chart uses historical stock prices as the base reference points from which its forecasts of the potential futures for the S&P 500's trajectory are made. The redzone forecast range assumes investors will primarily focus on the upcoming quarter of 2026-Q2 as they set current day stock prices over the period it runs.

Here are the week's market-moving headlines, which adds geopolitics to the ongoing concerns over tariffs and AI for shaping investor expectations.

Monday, 23 February 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

  • Trump says US global tariff rate will rise from 10% to 15%

    • Winners and losers from Trump's new 15% global tariff

    • EU says it will accept no increase in US tariffs

    • US tariff turmoil leaves Treasury markets dazed

  • Oil at six-month high with nuclear talks and US tariffs in focus

    • US and Iran slide towards conflict as military buildup eclipses talks

    • Iran hit by resurgent protests as U.S. builds pressure ahead of new nuclear talks

• Fed minions keep trying to sell their pause in cutting interest rates:

  • Fed's Waller: January jobs data an upside surprise, if it continues a policy pause may be appropriate

• BOJ minions likely to fight falling yen with rate hikes:

  • BOJ may raise rates in March if yen resumes slide, says ex-policymaker

• Chief ECB minions trying really hard to sell idea Eurozone monetary policy is in a good place, also may have an ethical scandal:

  • ECB's Lagarde sticks with 'good place' mantra

  • ECB's Lagarde receives 140,000 euros from BIS despite payment ban for ECB staff, FT reports

• Wall Street dragged down by AI-disruption fears, tariff uncertainty

  • Wall Street ends sharply lower amid AI displacement fears and revived tariff angst

    • Enterprise software stocks tumble after Citrini note on AI risks

    • Investors shift from AI darlings to ‘heavy asset’ stocks in search of stability

Tuesday, 24 February 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

  • New US tariffs come in at lower 10% rate

  • US single-family home price growth slows in December, FHFA says

    • Despite Rise In December, US Home Prices Saw Weakest Full-Year Gain Since 2011

  • Oil prices hover near seven-month highs on US-Iran tensions

    • Middle East oil exports push tanker costs to 6-year-high amid threat of US-Iran war

    • Ten years after first cargo, US LNG dominance set to keep growing

• Fed minions starting to think AI might cause job losses, claim they can' t do anything about it:

  • Fed's Cook says AI triggering big changes, sees possible short-term unemployment rise

  • Exclusive: Bostic says Fed cannot offset possible rise in structural unemployment

  • Fed's Waller says central bank deploying AI tech cautiously

  • Fed's Goolsbee: Rate cuts appropriate if inflation falls, but too soon to bet on productivity

• Bigger trouble developing in China:

  • China says it will decide on US tariff countermeasures in due course

• BOJ minions standing by to leap into action to stop Japanese yen from collapsing:

  • Yen slips after report on Japanese PM's rate-hike reservations

• Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone:

  • European car sales fall in January, petrol cars sharply decline

• Wall Street ends higher as software stocks rebound from Monday selloff

  • Wall St bounces back, ending higher on renewed tech vigor, easing AI concerns

  • Gold drops on profit-taking, seen likely consolidating above $5,000

Wednesday, 25 February 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

  • Oil turns negative as large US crude stock build outshines supply concerns

    • OPEC+ to consider 137,000 bpd oil output increase for April, sources say

  • Trump says he has told big tech companies to build their own power plants

  • New US tariff starts at 10%, Trump administration working to hike it to 15%

    • US tariff rate to hit 15% or more for some nations, USTR says

• Fed minions still worrying about inflation even though it's running under the level they've really been targeting:

  • Fed's Schmid says high inflation still bigger issue facing central bank

• Bigger trouble developing in China:

  • China says it has met US trade obligations, warns against more tariffs

• BOJ minions see steady inflation, standing by to prop up yen as looser policy:

  • Japan's services inflation steady, signals wage-driven price pressure

  • Yen hits fresh 2-week lows, market sentiment in focus

  • In surprise move, Japan's government taps two reflationists for BOJ board

    • Exclusive: Ex-BOJ chief Kuroda calls for rate hikes, tighter fiscal policy

• ECB minions find out who their Number Two is:

  • ECB approves Vujcic as new vice-president

• Wall Street ended higher ahead of Nvidia's earnings

  • Wall St opens higher in run-up to Nvidia earnings as AI worries abate

  • Bonds outperform equities as AI scare fuels rotation, Barclays says

Thursday, 26 February 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

  • Oil settles down after choppy session as traders follow US, Iran talks

  • US mortgage rates dip below 6%, but supply remains key

• Fed minions thinking about more rate cuts, but not until later in the year:

  • Fed's Goolsbee forecasts several more rate cuts this year, but not soon

  • Fed's Miran: Four quarter-point cuts still warranted this year, no "all clear" for job market

• Bigger trouble developing in China:

  • US trade panel to probe impact of revoking China's permanent normal trade status

• BOJ gets new minions, gets stronger yen after rate hike threat:

  • Japan's Takaichi gets her doves in a row with BOJ board appointees

  • Yen strengthens after Bank of Japan signals data-driven rate hikes

• Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone, chief ECB minion claims again she won't quit early and also sees no wave of AI job layoffs yet:

  • Euro zone business lending growth slows, ECB data shows

    • ECB expects food inflation to settle just above 2%

  • ECB's Lagarde again hints at completing term

    • ECB sees no wave of AI-led layoffs yet, Lagarde says

• Wall Street ended lower as investors digested Nvidia results

  • Wall St ends lower as tech rally stalls, AI fervor wanes after Nvidia results

    • Nvidia's results beat estimates, but Wall Street wants more cash return

  • Tech stocks slide as AI spending fears return

    • Wall Street turns to complex trades to dodge AI ‘implosions’

Friday, 27 February 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

  • Oil prices rise 3% as US and Iran extend talks into next week

    • US oil output fell in December to lowest since June 2025, EIA says

  • US producer prices rise strongly in January

  • Restaurants emerge as bright spot for US job growth as consumers seek treats

• Bigger stimulus developing in China:

  • China needs more proactive and coordinated policies, Politburo says

  • Chinese Yuan Breaks Past 6.84 to US Dollar, Hitting Nearly Three-Year High

    • As the yuan sizzles, China’s central bank deploys double-barrelled policy tweak

    • China encourages dollar buying to slow surging yuan

    • What can China do to slow down its rising currency?

• BOJ minions see inflation that doesn't justify rate hikes:

  • Core inflation in Japan's capital slows below BOJ's 2% target in test for policy

• Lower inflation developing in Eurozone:

  • German inflation unexpectedly dips to 2% in February

• Wall Street ended lower after wholesale inflation arrived hotter than expected

  • Wall Street hit by UK mortgage lender collapse, raising fears of more credit 'cockroaches'

    • Barclays, Jefferies shares slide as UK mortgage lender collapse revives wider credit fears

    • Barclays, Santander, Wells Fargo in Street lenders exposed to failed UK-based MFS - report

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool is giving a 66% probability the Fed will cut the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter point on 17 June (2026-Q2) which is higher than the preceding week. Beyond that date however, the outlook for rate cuts has changed with additional quarter point rate cuts on 16 September (2026-Q3), and 27 January (2027-Q1) now expected with better than even odds.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool forecasts real GDP growth will be +3.0% in the current quarter of 2026-Q1, a tick lower than the +3.1% growth projected a week earlier.