S&P 500 Declines As Overinflated AI Stocks Lose Some Air

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) lost money every day of the trading week ending on Friday, 26 June 2026. By week's end, the index dropped 1.95% from the previous week's close, ending up at 7,354.02. That's about 3.4% below its 2 June 2026 record high.

It wasn't a big change as stock market volatility goes, but there is something interesting going on within it. The biggest stocks within the S&P 500, many of them making big bets on Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies or having become big because they produce the infrastructure those bets on AI require, were down.

Since the S&P 500 weights its holdings of its component stocks by their market capitalization, having these biggest stocks of the index decline would be expected to take a bite out of the index as a whole. Which is indeed what happened.

What wouldn't necessarily be expected in that scenario is for the other, smaller stocks of the index to power higher, which also happened.

In the latest update of the alternative futures chart, we've added a new redzone forecast range to compensate for the echo of 2025's AI-powered recovery from the 'Liberation Day' global tariff event, during which we anticipate the S&P 500 will undershoot the dividend futures-based model's raw projections.

The echo effect arises because the model incorporates historic stock price data as the base reference points of its projections of the index' likely future trajectories. We add the redzone forecast ranges when we know the echoes of the past volatility of stock prices will affect the model's projections, in which we bridge across the period that will be affected. For this newest redzone forecast range, we've assumed investors will focus on the now current quarter of 2026-Q3 in setting current day stock prices, anchoring it on that trajectory on 18 June 2026 and setting the other end on the model's projections of where the S&P 500 will be on 27 July 2026, provided they hold their forward looking focus on 2026-Q3.

We expect investors will mostly hold their focus on this quarter because of the likely timing for when the Federal Reserve will hike short term U.S. interest rates. On that count, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool continued to project the Fed will hike the Federal Funds rate by a quarter point to a target range of 3.75-4.00% after the Fed meets on 16 September (2026-Q3).

Meanwhile, here are the market moving headlines that investors had to absorb during the trading week that was:

Monday, 22 June 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

  • Oil settles down more 3% after US-Iran talks signal easing supply risks

    • US proposes to slash costs for energy drillers on federal lands

• New chief minion's style affecting how investors read Federal Reserve's intentions:

  • Warsh brings a skinny approach to a complex world

• Mixed economic signs developing in China:

  • China's 618 shopping festival sees flat e-commerce sales as shoppers remain cautious

  • China youth jobless rate drops to 11-month low in May

• Bigger stimulus slowly developing in Japan:

  • Japan to target $2.3 trillion public-private investment by 2040, Nikkei reports

• ECB minions say their 'neutral rate' analysis is useless for policymaking:

  • ECB not using neutral rate estimate to decide policy, Lagarde says

    • ECB chief Lagarde plays down second-round inflation worries

• S&P 500, Nasdaq end in the red as tech suffers, traders weigh in Middle East peace talks

  • S&P 500, Nasdaq close lower, dragged by Alphabet and megacap tech; focus on Iran

    • Alphabet has its worst day in over a year on AI concerns after high-profile exits

    • Without AI and energy, the S&P 500 is actually in the red in 2026

    • Alphabet Sinks 6%, Amazon Slides 4% Amid AI Capex Anxiety Across the Hyperscalers

Tuesday, 23 June 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

  • US Manufacturing Hits 49-Month High As 'Input Costs Show Signs Of Cooling'

  • Treasury yields fall despite rate hike concerns hitting tech stocks

  • Oil steady as investors focus on Hormuz flows after peace talks

    • US gasoline prices tumble for sixth straight week

    • US Airlines Set To Pocket $40 Billion As Jet Fuel Prices Crash

• Fed minions slow to respond to changing conditions for inflation; say Iran war oil price shock wasn't big deal:

  • Fed's Goolsbee says labor market stable, inflation going the wrong way

  • Oil shock nicked US GDP but resilience was the message, Dallas Fed research finds

• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

  • China targets US rare earth and other firms with export controls

  • China announces measures to expand automotive after-market

• ECB minions say they'll wait for data, but signal more interest rate hikes are coming even as bigger trouble develops in Eurozone:

  • ECB's Kazimir: next steps will depend on data but direction is clear

  • Euro zone inflation could stay high even with peace deal, ECB's Lane says

  • Euro zone private sector contraction eases in June but services stay weak, PMI shows

• U.S. stocks end deep in the red as tech trade struggles

  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq turn lower as tech stocks fall under pressure

    • Nasdaq 100 set to shed over $1 trillion as tech selloff deepens; SpaceX slides

    • Here Is The Korean Article That Sent Memory Stocks Tumbling And Sparked A Global Selloff

Wednesday, 24 June 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

  • US new single-family home sales post second straight monthly decline

  • Brent settles at lowest since before start of Iran war as more tankers exit Hormuz

  • US manufacturing rises on front-loading of orders, but factory employment tumbles to six-year low

• Fed minions give passing stress test results to U.S. banks:

  • Fed says large US banks well-positioned to weather hypothetical downturn, several raise dividends

• Growth signs developing in China:

  • China's coal power on the rise again in 2026, reversing first-in-a-decade decline

• BOJ minions thinking about next move to hike Japan's interest rates:

  • Some Bank of Japan members call for faster rate hikes, summary shows

• U.S. stocks pull back as tech selloff persists, oil prices drop

  • Nasdaq, S&P end lower as tech stocks fall

  • Gold hits over seven-month low as dollar firms, rate hike bets rise

Thursday, 25 June 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

  • US PCE inflation measure tops 4.0% in May; consumer spending strong

    • 10-year Treasury yield declines after May inflation data comes in as expected

    • Core inflation rate hit 3.4% in May, highest since October 2023, Fed’s preferred gauge shows

    • Apple stock drops 5% on MacBook and iPad price hikes due to memory crunch

  • US first-quarter GDP revised sharply higher; but consumer spending nearly stalls

  • US prices for new drugs fell in 2025 as fewer costly gene therapies were launched

  • Oil prices at pre-war levels on rising Middle East supply

• Fed minions expected to take summer off from more rate hikes, say their policy is 'well positioned' to lower inflation:

  • Fed expected to hold rates steady in July, hike in September

  • Fed's Williams: Inflation still too high, rate policy 'well positioned' to lower price pressures

  • Fed's Goolsbee sees glimmer of hope in latest inflation data

• Bigger stimulus, trouble developing in China:

  • China central bank to add tool to better manage short-term liquidity

  • China's 'future industries' push triggers flood of venture capital, bubble concerns

  • China's carmakers rush to Canada as a ‘practice run’ for US sales

  • China's top auditor says major state banks have committed tax evasion or lending violations

• Bigger stimulus, rate hikes developing in Japan:

  • Japan's government blueprint nudges BOJ to fuel demand, clouding rates path

  • Hawkish BOJ policymaker calls for rate hike once every few months

• ECB minions say persistent inflation in Eurozone will make them keep hiking interest rates:

  • ECB's Schnabel sees more tightening even after Iran ceasefire

• Wall St ends mixed as tech megacap declines outweigh upbeat chip outlook

  • U.S. stocks struggle to end positively despite great Micron's 3Q results, in-line inflation

    • Micron in charts: DRAM and NAND revenues rocket over 340% Y/Y in historic FQ3 '26 surge

Friday, 26 June 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

  • Oil prices dive as more tankers move through Strait of Hormuz

  • Fertiliser shipments begin exiting through Hormuz strait

  • Surge in imports drives US goods trade deficit to 14-month high in May

• Bigger stimulus developing in China:

  • China's central bank urges banks to boost lending as demand remains weak, sources say

• BOJ minions find inflation to fight in Japan:

  • Core inflation in Tokyo accelerates as energy-driven price pressures begin to broaden

• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:

  • Which Volkswagen factories in Germany could be shut down?

    • Volkswagen declines to comment on reported job cuts

• Tech rout drags S&P 500 to weekly decline

  • S&P 500 ends lower; chips tumble and Moderna rallies

    • S&P 500 Index divergence: Equal-weight climbs while cap-weight melts

  • Nasdaq suffers more than 4% weekly loss as Big Tech drags

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's estimate of real GDP growth for the U.S. economy in the current quarter of 2026-Q2 dropped to +2.5% from the previous week's real growth estimate of +3.0%.