Why haven’t they risen?
May 2019 futures for soybeans:
Source: barchart.com/futures.
Some observers have pointed out that the record 900 mn odd bushels of soybeans in US stockpiles might be exerting some downward pressure. I agree, but the “news” that would accompany a deal that Chinese are buying US soybeans would mean that ceteris paribus future stockpiles would be smaller than otherwise. Of course, this prediction is predicated on the deal being “credible”. And the one thing we know about the current administration is that credibility is in short supply…
In sum, I’m still awaiting the soybean price recovery that was promised for end-2018…
In other news, Fagjelbaum et al. have tabulated the costs to the US economy of Mr. Trump’s trade war thus far…
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