We kicked off the day with HFIB Business Optimism Index at 5:00 A.M., ADP Employment Change Weely at 7:15 A.M.,OOI MoM & YoY, Core PPI MoM & YoY, PPI, and PPI Ex Food, Energy, and Trade MoM & YoY at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., 52-Week & 6-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Goolsbee Speech at 11:15 A.M., Fed Barr Speech at 11:45 A.M., Fed Collins Speech at 12:00 P.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.
CBOT Corn Rallies Fail; Planting Active across the Southern US:
CBOt corn strength was short-lived as the grain markets have disjoined from the world energy values. WTI crude oil settled well off session highs as US President Trump threatened to obliterate Iran’s small attack vessels while US Navy destroyers passed back and forth navigating the Straight of Hormuz. Whispers on the street say large investment firms are telling clients to invest as if the war in Iran has ended. Ag Resources (ARC) maintains the worst of the war has passed. The US corn crop is estimated 5% planted, vs. 4% on average. Progress in Delta/Southeast is well ahead of average, with crops to be fully seeded in MS & AR in the next two weeks. Southern US corn yields will be revisited in June, but early planting suggests the 2026 harvest will e 40-50% complete in LA, AR, MS, and TN by late August, adding to already large old-crop stocks. Seasonal price trends turn negative by May if Midwest planting dates are aligned with averages. Historically, the US seeds about 35% of it’s corn crop in April and the remainder of May. Futures traders are shifting their attention to new-crop contracts as large US old-crop stocks loom, despite strong nearby export demand. Record large South American corn harvests will lower US corn exports in 2026/27.
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