Some 1 Year Ahead Inflation Expectations — Households vs. Economists (Again)

Household forecasts are about 2 percentage points above those of economists.

Figure 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median expected from Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), median expected from Michigan Survey of Consumers (red), median from NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (light green), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), WSJ July survey for June 2022 y/y inflation (light blue triangle). Source: BLS, University of Michigan via FRED, Reuters, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed, WSJ July survey.

A reminder that — as all expectations of y/y inflation move up — consumer/household-based expectations are higher than those from economists and other forecasters, and (as discussed here), upwardly biased.