Solid Start To Q4 Earnings Season

The big banks have given us a strong start to the Q4 earnings season, going some way towards justifying these stocks’ recent momentum, particularly following the election.

A big part of the recent gains for stocks like JPMorgan (JPM: up +23.1% since November 8th), Bank of America (BAC: up +34.8% in that time period) and others reflect market participants’ hopes that the incoming administration will roll back all or most of the regulatory constraints, implement tax reform, and give the U.S. economy’s growth trajectory a positive nudge. But the more tangible catalyst for bank earnings, particularly this earnings season, has been the post-election uptrend in interest rates.

We didn’t really see the full impact of higher interest rates on the banks’ net interest margins in Q4 results. But higher interest rates, increased confidence and the resultant enhanced appetite for risks did juice JPMorgan and Bank of America’s trading revenues. JPMorgan’s trading revenues were up +24% from the year-earlier level, with fixed income trading revenues up +31%. Bank of America showed strong gains in fixed income trading as well, with the bank’s Q4 fixed income trading revenues up +12% from the year-earlier level. This momentum in trading revenues offers favorable read-throughs for Goldman Sachs (GS), which reports next week (Jan. 18th) and has a storied trading franchise. Morgan Stanley (MS), which reports a day ahead of Goldman, has been reducing its trading business over the last many years.

It is still fairly early, with results from only five Finance sector companies in the S&P 500 (out of 90 total) out already, but these five companies are the some of the largest in the entire index and account for more than a quarter of the sector’s total market capitalization. Total earnings for these five Finance sector companies are up +15.6% from the same period last year on +1.4% higher revenues, with all five beating EPS estimates but only two beating top-line estimates.

This is better earnings growth than we have seen from the same group of five banks in other recent periods, which is having a favorable impact on the aggregate Q4 growth expectation for the sector as a whole. Total Q4 earnings for the Finance sector as a whole, combining the reported actuals with the still-to-come estimates, are expected to be up +17.1% from the same period last year. The table below shows the sector’s Q4 earnings growth expectations at the medium-industry level contrasted with estimates for the following four quarters and actual results for the preceding three periods.

Please note that the Major Banks industry, of which JPMorgan, Bank of America and others are part, accounts for roughly 45% of the sector’s total earnings (insurance is the second biggest earnings contributor, accounting for about 25% of the total). The sector’s growth pace for the quarter remains in double-digits even after we adjust for the easy comparisons at AIG (AIG). Excluding AIG, the sector’s Q4 earnings would be up +11.7%.

The sector’s earnings are on track to be flat in 2016. But they were expected to be up materially in 2017 and 2018 even before the aforementioned favorable developments. The chart below shows the sector’s annual earnings growth expectations.

With a number of policy oriented developments still to unfold after the new administration takes office, it is reasonable expect positive revisions to these expectations. And if that is the case, then bank stocks should continue their momentum. Valuations have no doubt caught up with underlying fundamentals, but they are by no means stretched relative to historical periods, particularly given the emerging interest rate trajectory.

Q4 Scorecard (as of Friday, January 13th)

With Q4 results from 29 S&P 500 members already on the books, total earnings are up +11.2% on +3.1% higher revenues, with 69% beating EPS estimates and 44.8% coming ahead of top-line expectations.

The table below provides the current Q4 scorecard

The charts below provide a comparison of the results thus far with what we have seen from this same group of 29 S&P 500 members in other recent periods.

As you can see, the Q4 growth pace, particularly for earnings, is notably tracking above what we had seen from the same group of 29 index members in other recent periods. But positive surprises seem to be hard to come by, with revenue surprises particularly on the weak side. That said, the sample size is still on the small side and will most likely shift as the reporting cycle ramps up this week.

We have 81 companies reporting results this week, including 34 S&P 500 members. The chart below shows the weekly summary reporting calendar for companies in the S&P 500 index.

Q4 Expectations As a Whole

For Q4 as a whole, total earnings for the S&P 500 companies are expected to be up +4.2% from the same period last year on +3.8% higher revenues. This would follow the +3.8% growth in Q3 earnings on +2.3% higher revenues, the first instance of positive earnings growth for the index after five quarters of back-to-back declines. Comparisons for the Energy sector, a big driver of the earnings recession, turn positive in Q4, with the sector’s earnings growth turning positive for the first time after 8 quarters of declines.

The chart below shows that positive earnings growth resumed in 2016 Q3 after 5 quarters of declines, with the growth pace expected to improve in Q4 and ramp up notably in the following quarters.

The table below shows the summary picture Q4 contrasted with what was actually achieved in the preceding quarter.

 

Here is a list of the 81 companies reporting this week, including 34 S&P 500 members.