Softs Report - Monday, Oct. 5

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed about unchanged for the week and trends are still sideways on the weekly charts. Demand has improved over the last couple of weeks but the weekly export sales report showed just moderate demand last week. There was no major Chinese demand, but China and Turkey were the best buyers of US Cotton. Demand should stay weak as long as the Coronavirus is around. Shopping is hard to do and many people are still unemployed. This is true in just about all countries. Hurricane Sally moved into the Southeast and brought some heavy rains. Ideas are that most of the Cotton crops in the region escaped any major damage that the storm could have brought. The supply losses are in the market now. However, the Harvest is underway and the tropical season is active.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions, and Southeast will get scattered showers. Temperatures should be below normal in the Delta and in the Southeast. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The USDA average price is now 60.18 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 14,722 bales, from 14,519 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were post4ee for delivery against October contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 20 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6520, 6490, and 8470 December, with resistance of 6620, 6660, and 6680 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher in recovery trading last week. Florida has been spared any hurricanes or other serious storms this year in a year that has been very active for tropical storms with a record amount of tropical storms hitting the US. The lack of damaging weather usually means lower prices for futures. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is really dining out. Florida production prospects for the new crop were hurt by an extended flowering period, but the weather is good now with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Import demand to the US should be minimal as US prices remain below those of Europe. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 119.00 and 121.00 November. Support is at 111.00, 106.00, and 100.00 November, with resistance at 114.00, 117.00, and 119.00 November.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower last week in New York and in London in choppy trading. New York ran to test the previous week's highs near 115.00 December and then failed. London had been better supported due to stronger demand ideas and worries about the weather in Vietnam but the country is getting some rain now and the worries have abated. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels. Consumers are still drinking coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The Brazil harvest is over and producers are selling due to extreme weakness in the Real. Ideas are that production is very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.096 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 107.34 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions this week with above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 105.00,102.00, and 101.00 December and resistance is at 110.00, 113.00, and 115.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1230 November. Support is at 1260, 1240, and 1230 November, and resistance is at 1330, 1340, and 1370 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher but the fundamentals are still negative and London December closed slightly lower. World petroleum prices are weaker. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices. It has been dry lately to affect Sugarcane production. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China to hinder irrigation of the crops. Demand appears to be about average.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1320, 1310, and 1290 March, and resistance is at 1380, 1410, and 1430 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 368.00, 366.00, and 363.00 December, and resistance is at 379.00, 382.00, and 384.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower and trends are turning down in both markets. The harvest for the next main crop is spreading to much of West Africa and very strong production is expected. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.653 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2480, 2430, and 2360 December. Support is at 2460, 2400, and 2370 December, with resistance at 2520, 2540, and 2580 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1680, 1670, and 1530 December. Support is at 1710, 1680, and 1660 December, with resistance at 1770, 1810, and 1840 December.