Softs Report - Monday, Oct. 19

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed higher for the week and trends are up on the weekly charts. Hurricane Delta moved through the Delta and Southeast and did some damage to Cotton. Open bolls were reported in both regions and Cotton fiber was discolored or else blown out of the bolls due to the rain and winds. The discolored Cotton is getting a chance to recover now as it has turned dry and the fiber can be naturally bleached by the Sun. The weekly export sales report showed just moderate demand last week. There was no major Chinese demand. Demand should stay weak as long as the Coronavirus is around. Shopping is hard to do and many people are still unemployed. This is true in just about all countries.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get dry conditions after scattered showers today and tomorrow. Temperatures should trend to below normal in the Delta and in the Southeast. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal through tomorrow, then near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 64.53 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 25,973 bales, from 24,232 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6930, 6840, and 6750 December, with resistance of 7060, 7090 and 7130 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher in choppy trading last week. Florida has been spared any hurricanes or other serious storms this year in a year that has been very active for tropical storms with a record amount of tropical storms hitting the US. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is really dining out. Florida production prospects for the new crop were hurt by an extended flowering period, but the weather is good now with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Showers are falling in Brazil now. Mexican crop conditions are called good to very good with ample rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 114.00, 112.00, and 111.00 November, with resistance at 119.00, 121.00, and 126.00 November.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower last week in New York and higher in London. London had been better supported due to stronger demand ideas and worries about the weather in Vietnam and the country is getting too much rain now and flooding is being reported in the Central Highlands. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The Brazil harvest is over and producers are selling due to the recent extreme weakness in the Real. Ideas are that production is very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. Central America is also offering right now and offers are increasing. The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.119 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 105.82 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 106.00, 105.00, and 103.00 December, and resistance is at 111.00, 113.00 and 115.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1240, 1220, and 1210 November, and resistance is at 1280, 1320, and 1340 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were lower. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices. About 45% of the crush this year will go to Sugar, from 35% last year. It has been dry lately to affect Sugarcane production and producers are less aggressive sellers. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but the Coronavirus has made exports hard. The Indian government has not yet announced the subsidy for exporters of Sugar so no one knows how much to charge yet. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Rains are moving through the country now from Vietnam and the Pacific. The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease. Demand appears to be about average.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1480 March. Support is at 1410, 1380, and 1370 March, and resistance is at 1450, 1490, and 1530 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 409.00 and 424.00 December. Support is at 396.00, 388.00, and 385.00 December, and resistance is at 398.00, 400.00, and 403.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were lower. Trends are turning down in both markets. The harvest for the next main crop is spreading through much of West Africa and very strong production is expected. Some concern is noted in Nigeria as rains keep falling and make it hard to sun dry the beans. Drier weather is currently in the forecast so conditions should improve. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic. The North American cocoa grind was 4% lower than a year ago and the Asian cocoa grind was down 10% from last year Ivory Coast is in the middle of the presidential campaign season and some violence s expected.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions today and showers this weekend and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.559 million bags. The North American Cocoa 3rd quarter grind was 118,260 tons, from 123,208 tons last year
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2360, 2350, and 2290 December. Support is at 2330, 2300, and 2270 December, with resistance at 2410, 2440, and 2470 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1530 December. Support is at 1620, 1590, and 1570 December, with resistance at 1680, 1700, and 1730 December.