Softs Report - Monday, Nov. 9

COTTON

General Comments: Cotton closed a little lower for the week. The weather has improved after a couple of hurricanes hit the Delta and Southeast. It remains dry in West Texas. Harvest is ongoing so increased rains now can only delay things and not improve conditions much. The weekly export sales report showed weaker demand last week. There was no major Chinese demand. Demand should stay generally weak as long as the Coronavirus is around. Shopping is hard to do and many people are still unemployed. India is also harvesting under what appear to be good conditions. Good production is expected.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal in the Delta and in the Southeast. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 64.30 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 69,573 bales, from 66,598 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 6730, 6389, and 6190 December. Support is at 6810, 6780, and 6670 December, with the resistance of 7000, 7110 and 7180 December.

FCOJ

General Comments:: FCOJ was near unchanged once again last week. Florida has been spared any hurricanes or other serious storms this year in a year that has been very active for tropical storms. The Coronavirus is still promoting the consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and foodservice demand has been much less as no one is really dining out. Florida production prospects for the new crop were hurt by an extended flowering period, but the weather is good now with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Showers are falling in Brazil now and these need to continue to ensure good tree health. Mexican crop conditions are called good with rains.

Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against November contracts and that total delivery for the month is 0 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 112.00, 110.00, and 108.00 January, with resistance at 116.00, 118.00, and 121.00 January.

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were higher last week in New York and a little lower in London. Both markets are trying to complete bottom formations on the charts. London had been better supported due to stronger demand ideas and worries about the weather in Vietnam as the country is getting too much rain now and flooding is being reported in the Central Highlands. The rains should continue for another week. The demand from coffee shops and other foodservice operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The Brazil harvest is over and producers are selling due to the recent extreme weakness in the Real. Ideas are that production is very strong this year as it is one year for the trees. Central America is also offering right now and offers are increasing. The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.

Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.170 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 106.75 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers and rains with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see some big rains.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 104.00, 102.00, and 99.00 December, and resistance is at 108.00, 111.00 and 112.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1330, 1310, and 1280 January, and resistance is at 1360, 1380, and 1400 January.

SUGAR

General Comments: New York and London were higher. Coronavirus has returned to the US and Europe and has caused some demand concerns. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices. About 45% of the crush this year will go to Sugar, from 35% last year. Rains are falling now to improve Sugarcane's growing conditions. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but the exports have been hard to make. The Indian government will not announce the subsidy for exporters of Sugar so prices will need to rally in the world market before exporters can become involved. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Rains are moving through the country now from Vietnam and the Pacific. The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease.

Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1430, 1400, and 1370 March, and resistance is at 1500, 1530, and 1550 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 399.00, 391.00, and 384.00 March, and resistance is at 406.00, 409.00, and 412.00 March.

COCOA

General Comments:: New York and London were lower on demand concerns caused by the return of the Coronavirus to Europe and the US. The weekly charts show that downtrends are established again. The harvest for the next main crop is almost done for much of West Africa and very strong production is expected. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic. The North American and European cocoa grinds were at least 4% lower than a year ago and the Asian cocoa grind was down 10% from last year.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.361 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2290, 2240, and 2170 December, with resistance at 2370, 2410, and 2500 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1570, 1540, and 1510 December, with resistance at 1630, 1650, and 1670 December.