Softs Report - Monday, August 24

COTTON

General Comments: Cotton closed a little higher for the week and trends are turning up on the weekly charts. West Texas weather remains detrimental for crop development as the region has been very dry and hot. The hot and dry weather extends north into Oklahoma and western Kansas. Export demand for US Cotton has been poor for the last few weeks but was improved last week. Export demand is the primary demand for US Cotton so poor weekly sales means weak overall demand. The retail demand has been slow to develop as many consumers got hurt economically due to stay at home orders during the height of the pandemic and have little disposable funds to spend on clothes. Demand will slowly improve but the industry should have plenty of supplies to work with in the short term. The US weather situation is mixed, with good rains noted in the Southeast and good conditions in the Midsouth. However, it has been very hot and dry in West Texas and farther to the north in the Great Plains and crops there are suffering.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and Southeast will get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Texas will have isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA average price is now 58.37 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 6,465 bales, from 6,465 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 6870 December. Support is at 6380, 6350, and 6270 December, with resistance of 6500, 6580 and 6680 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 18, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 233,597
: Positions :
: 42,853 11,716 53,620 42,536 150,498 81,239 7,722 220,248 223,556: 13,349 10,041
: Changes from: August 11, 2020 (Change in open interest: 572) :
: 190 -368 -259 125 -869 -451 926 -394 -570: 966 1,141
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.3 5.0 23.0 18.2 64.4 34.8 3.3 94.3 95.7: 5.7 4.3
: Total Traders: 252 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 81 45 71 54 64 45 20 212 176:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ was lower for the week and the weekly charts still show down trends. The Coronavirus is still around and is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is really dining out. Florida production prospects for the new crop were hurt by an extended flowering period, but the weather is good now with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Import demand to the US should be minimal as US prices remain below those of Europe. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Some showers are in the region now to help in Sao Paulo.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 122.00, 128.00, and 134.00 September. Support is at 114.00, 111.00, and 109.00 September, with resistance at 120.00, 124.00, and 128.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 18, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,259 :
: Positions :
: 5,903 8,081 666 0 0 1,308 333 0 424 694 1,826 :
: Changes from: August 11, 2020 :
: -423 304 13 0 0 204 8 0 -79 -55 35 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 48.1 65.9 5.4 0.0 0.0 10.7 2.7 0.0 3.5 5.7 14.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 51 :
: 19 13 . 0 0 6 4 0 10 6 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were mixed, with prices mostly a little lower in New York and mostly a little higher in London. Chart trends are still turning up. Roasters are still taking certified stocks off the exchange instead of buying at origin. Vietnam was dry during flowering time and is dry again. Rains are starting to improve now. Production ideas are lower. Brazil and Central America are reported to be having problems with shipping due to lock downs from the Coronavirus. Demand overall remains down with the US still locking down due to the Coronavirus resurgence in some states. The demand from coffee shops at other food service operations is still at very low levels. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The Brazil harvest is active but shipping and collection have become very difficult due to the widespread outbreak of the Coronavirus there. The pickers are showing up for work and ports are operating normally. Ideas are that production will be very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. The strong production ideas are coming despite hot and dry weather seen in the country at flowering time.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.337 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 116.29 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to below normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers. ICE said that 30 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 30 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 125.00 and 133.00 September. Support is at 117.00, 115.00, and 112.00 September, and resistance is at 122.00, 127.00 and 129.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1500 and 1520 September. Support is at 1430, 1410, and 1370 September, and resistance is at 1490, 1520, and 1530 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 18, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 316,930
: Positions :
: 35,784 19,258 88,674 107,527 187,293 70,263 11,692 302,248 306,917: 14,682 10,012
: Changes from: August 11, 2020 (Change in open interest: -19,476) :
: 1,481 -2,035 -13,530 -9,124 -1,764 2,757 -703 -18,416 -18,032: -1,060 -1,443
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.3 6.1 28.0 33.9 59.1 22.2 3.7 95.4 96.8: 4.6 3.2
: Total Traders: 397 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 130 65 120 112 122 45 22 347 284:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/18/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers

OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
==============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
147,614 68,069 80,203 14,352 12,306 1,692
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 46.1% 54.3% 9.7% 8.3% 1.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
138 48 42 10 8 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
11,866 6,331 7,808 7,411 5,949 29,800
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.0% 4.3% 5.3% 5.0% 4.0% 20.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
24 15 15 13 11 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,616 3,525
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.5% 2.4%

SUGAR

General Comments: New York and London were lower. CONAB noted in its most recent report that Brazilian mills are producing more Sugar and less Ethanol this year due to reduced Ethanol demand. Ideas are that there is plenty of Sugar for the world market. Getting the Sugar moved is becoming more difficult with the widespread Coronavirus outbreak in both Brazil and India. India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult due to Coronavirus lock downs. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China to hinder irrigation of the crops.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1280, 1240, and 1230 October, and resistance is at 1330, 1360, and 1420 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 368.00, 365.00, and 350.00 October, and resistance is at 381.00, 384.00, and 386.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 18, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,192,703
: Positions :
: 166,779 39,522 209,104 411,001 855,258 309,055 44,049 1,095,939 1,147,933: 96,764 44,770
: Changes from: August 11, 2020 (Change in open interest: 6,244) :
: 19,489 243 -1,844 -19,803 11,260 3,731 446 1,574 10,106: 4,670 -3,862
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.0 3.3 17.5 34.5 71.7 25.9 3.7 91.9 96.2: 8.1 3.8
: Total Traders: 250 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 61 42 77 80 78 43 23 229 184:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/18/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
111,062 49,050 88,247 13,138 4,669 2,766
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 44.2% 79.5% 11.8% 4.2% 2.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
120 37 41 13 4 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
27,071 1,340 6,895 3,257 465 3,962
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
24.4% 1.2% 6.2% 2.9% 0.4% 3.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
29 6 14 6 5 10
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,923 2,718
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.4% 2.4%

COCOA

General Comments: New York closed about unchanged and London closed lower. The current crop features strong production but there are worries about the next crop due to dry conditions in West Africa. Nigerian traders told the wire services last week that the Nigerian harvest will be delayed by at least a month due t dry weather keeping the pods and beans small and keeping the pods from developing normally. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Europe is still trying to open its markets again but the Coronavirus is still around and consumers are reluctant to buy. Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.850 million bags. ICE said that 18 notices were posted for delivery today against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 63 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2350 and 2250 December. Support is at 2360, 2290, and 2250 December, with resistance at 2430, 2460, and 2480 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1630 and 1570 December. Support is at 1620, 1590, and 1570 December, with resistance at 1680, 1690, and 1710 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 18, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 227,183
: Positions :
: 33,947 27,969 39,130 82,030 136,899 59,812 15,387 214,919 219,385: 12,264 7,797
: Changes from: August 11, 2020 (Change in open interest: -5,010) :
: 489 1,940 -2,157 -4,947 -4,499 1,744 -283 -4,871 -4,998: -139 -12
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.9 12.3 17.2 36.1 60.3 26.3 6.8 94.6 96.6: 5.4 3.4
: Total Traders: 218 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 71 51 55 42 43 35 17 177 141:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/18/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
==============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
287,588 183,963 195,403 27,571 11,552 14,920
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 64.0% 67.9% 9.6% 4.0% 5.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
142 51 47 14 7 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
12,966 20,497 7,861 2,800 254 34,339
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.5% 7.1% 2.7% 1.0% 0.1% 11.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
19 18 12 16 7 22
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,166 2,762
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.1% 1.0%