Softs Report - Friday, Aug. 14

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday on speculative selling after the USDA WASDE reports and despite the weekly export sales report that showed strong sales. Futures are now correcting the recent up move. USDA trimmed production to 13.61 million bales from 13.7 million before. Demand was left unchanged at 13.90 million bales and ending stocks were estimated at 3.0 million bales from 3.1 million before. USDA showed that conditions are still well behind year ago levels and showed deterioration last week with the crop starting to open bolls. Progress is about average, with bolls being set and squaring proceeding at a normal pace. Forecasts and reports of scattered to isolated showers in Cotton areas continue for the Delts, and the Southeast. Temperatures will be warm to hot in all areas. Trends are mixed on the daily and are up the weekly charts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down. Support is at 77.10, 75.50, and 74.50 December, with resistance of 84.30, 86.20 and 88.10 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were a little lower yesterday and trends are still turning down on the daily charts. The weekly charts are mixed but could turn down if the current down move expands. It is still dry in Florida but showers are showing up. The weather for the next crop is dry but seasonal and some rains are now being reported. The weather is considered good for production in Mexico but it is dry in Brazil. Scattered showers are still reported in southern Brazil but many areas are drying out seasonally.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down. Support is at 135.00, 130.00, and 124.00 September, with resistance at 154,00 159.00, and 167.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday and trends are still mixed on the daily charts but are turning down in London. Brazil coffee is more and more available. Lower quality coffee is available but higher quality is hard to find due to weather problems. The next crop is developing well in South America amid scattered to isolated showers. Brazil has been hot and dry Indonesia is now about 80% harvested. Asian conditions are called good. Other world production conditions are generally good. Mexico is in good condition, but Central America is dry. Deliverable stocks are still below 300,000 bags and are well below last year.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 287.71 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 317.00, 306.00, and 300.00 September, and resistance is at 352.00, 357.00 and 364.00 September. Trends in London are m4ied. Support is at 3740, 3560, and 3490 September, with resistance at 3770, 3930, and 4130 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday but futurs appear to have stalled out for now and trends are mixed on the daily charts. The Iran war made bio fuels less valuable again, and Sugar has been slow to respond to rallies in petroleum products anyway. Drought in Europe and Brail are a major concern. The hot and dry weather is causing losses Sugarbeets production. There have been some rains in center-south Brazil causing some harvest delas, but generally dry weather is now forecast. Indian production is also less after hot and dry conditions and production in the rest of Asia could be hurt by El Nino weather. The Iran war has been paused as both sides signing a memorandum of understanding and continuing negotiations in Geneva. Trends are mixed on the daily charts in both markets. There are good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world. Drier weather in parts of Brazil and India has been good for the harvest.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1600, 1570, and 1540 October and resistance is 1690, 1720, and 1750 October. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 509.00, 499.00, and 480.00 October, with resistance at 524.00, 530.00, and 53s6.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were higher again yesterday. Daily chart trends are mixed and weekly trends are mixed. A big main crop harvest has arrived in West Africa and rains have been positive for the next crop. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market feels that there is less demand due to the high prices seen last year but demand has started to increase.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 5360, 3760, and 3660 September, with resistance at 6220, 6480, and 6600 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4000, 3660, and 3540 September, with resistance at 4570, 4820, and 4940 September.