Softs Report - Fri., June 12

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday in consolidation trading and despite improving weather for Cotton growing areas of the US. The WASDE report showed reduced beginning and ending stocks with the rest of the supply and demand data left unchanged. Endimg stocks are now estimated at 3.70 million bales. USDA showed that squaring and emergence were running at near or above normal last week and the weather has improved with increased precipitation for all areas. USDA showed that condition is well behind year ago levels. Forecasts and reports of scattered showers in Cotton areas continue for Texas, the Delts, and the Southeast. Temperatures will be variable. Trends are down on the daily and weekly charts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 71.00, 70.40, and 70.00 July, with resistance of 76.00, 78.30 and 79.10 July.

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were little changed and trends are still mixed on the daily charts. It is still dry in Florida. The weather for the next crop is dry but seasonal and some rains are now being reported. The weather is considered good for production in Mexico but it is dry in Brazil. Scattered showers are still reported in eastern Brazil but many areas are drying out seasonally.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down. Support is at 148.00, 142.00, and 136.00 July, with resistance at 178,00 184.00, and 190.00 July

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday. The next crop is developing well in South America and Asia amid good conditions. The harvest ib Brazil is a little behind last year. World production conditions are generally good. Mostly dry conditions are being reported now in Brazil. Mexico is in good condition, as Central America. Vietnam has had drier weather and conditions there are called good. Some showers are starting to appear there.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 241.31 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 242.00, 236.00, and 230.00 July, and resistance is at 262.00, 390.00 and 287.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 3250, 3180, and 3120 July, with resistance at 3610, 3650, and 3680 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York was lower and London was higher yesterday. The Iran has increased world petroleum prices and could divert demand from Sugar production to production of ethanol. Trends are mixed on the daily charts in both markets. There are good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world. Drier weather in parts of Brazil and India have been good for the harvest.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 1370, 1340, and 1310 July and resistance is 1550, 1570, and 1600 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 404.00, 398.00, and 392.00 August, with resistance at 457.00, 468.00, and 474.00 SUGAR: Beet sugar production for 2026/27 is projected at 4.939 million short tons, raw value (STRV), an increase of 217,100 over last month. Area harvested at 1.038 million acres is unchanged from last month, but national yield is increased to 31.94 tons/acre, up from 30.21 tons last month, on the basis of more area planted before mid-May than projected last month. Based on processors’ estimates, sugar from desugared molasses is projected at 400,000 STRV, an increase of 25,000 STRV and beet shrink is increased to 8.12 percent. Florida cane sugar production is increased 36,800 STRV to 1.979 million on processors’ reassessment of the effect of the February freeze on sugarcane yield and on good growing conditions this spring. Louisiana cane sugar production is unchanged. Imports at 3.260 million STRV are unchanged from last month. Deliveries for human consumption are increased 125,500 STRV to 12.385 million based on stronger domestic deliveries and direct consumption imports during the first 7 months of the fiscal year than originally forecast. Ending stocks are residually projected at 1.785 million STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 14.27 percent.

Mexico sugar production for 2026/27 is based on FAS Mexico City Post forecasts. Sugar production for 2026/27 is projected at 5.283 million metric tons (MT), about a 1.0 percent increase over the previous year. Seasonal rains during mid-2025 alleviated drought conditions but a better recovery is constrained by pressures in agricultural inputs markets, especially fertilizer prices and other input costs, that imply relatively lower yields. Area harvested is projected at 748,000 hectares (ha), up from 2025/26 and yield is expected at 65.6 MT/ha. Deliveries for human consumption are down about two percent relative to last year resulting from 2026 tax increases on sweetened beverages. Ending stocks are projected at 1.063 million MT and include 150,000 MT of below 99.2 percent polarity sugar available for export to the United States in the first quarter of the 2027/28 marketing year. Exports are residually projected at 1.198 million MT: 894,788 MT to the U.S. market under license (unchanged from last month) and 303,325 to other destinations not under license.

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets were a little lower yesterday. Daily trends are mixed to down in both markets, with New York showing the weaker chart pattern. A big main crop harvest has arrived in West Africa and rains have been positive for the next crop. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market feels that there is less demand due to the high prices seen last year and the lack of demand is expected to continue.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 3830, 3650, and 3490 July, with resistance at 4460, 4780, and 5130 July. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 2750, 2710, and 2500 July, with resistance at 3350, 3550, and 3690 July.