Soft Patch In The Third Quarter Or Does A Recession Start?

The bottom line number for third-Quarter GDP is odds on to be negative.

Economic data keeps weakening. Coupled with that data so goes the forecasts.

The GDPNow Forecast for the third quarter is 0.5% as of October 18. The initial forecasts for the third quarter was 6.1% on July 30.

There's less than a week of data coming in as the Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2021 (Advance Estimate) is out on October 28. 

Overall GDP is flirting with negative numbers.

More importantly, real final sales, the true bottom line measure of the economy is solidly negative at -1.6%.

The difference between the actual forecast and real final sales in an inventory build. But inventories net to zero over time.

Look for the Fed to declare a "temporary soft patch". But this could be much more serious.