SocGen: "The Upcoming Central Bank Reversal Can't Be Helpful For Stocks"

There was nothing to change the view that 2017 will see three rate hikes, but if rate hikes happen concurrently with a shrinking Fed balance sheet, that may have an impact on the terminal Funds rate.

Today's post-European open ramp in the USDJPY may have boosted risk sentiment after yesterday's sharp sell-off, and lifted global equities off session lows, but for many this is "too little, too late", with Bloomberg's commentator Marc Breslow noting earlier that at this point "it's a matter of when not if markets break down", a sentiment which was shared overnight by SocGen's FX strategist Kit Juckes, who in a note writes that "The wider Fed debate is about the impact on risk assets of shrinking the balance sheet. If near-zero rates and central bank buying of bonds have been the fundamental driver of global capital towards higher-yielding assets, then reversing both parts of this can't be helpful. Which is how markets have reacted overnight. "

Below are key excerpts from his overnight note:

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