Soaring Trade Deficit Took 0.6 Percentage Points Off GDPNow Final Estimate

Quick update 3.6% nowcast yesterday, 3.0% today. We find out tomorrow.

The GDPNow headline forecast was 3.6 percent yesterday.

The final estimate is now 3.6 percent.

GDPNow Percentage Point Contribution Estimates – Final

• PCE Goods: 0.17

• PCE Services: 1.51

• PCE Nonresidential Equipment: 0.25

• Intellectual Property: 0.31

• Nonresidential Structures: -0.05

• Residential Investment: 0.00

• Federal Government: 0.07

• State and Local Government: 0.17

• Imports: -0.04

• Exports: 0.07

• CIPI: 0.53

GDPNow Percentage Point Contribution Yesterday

• PCE Goods: 0.17

• PCE Services: 1.47

• PCE Nonresidential Equipment: 0.13

• Intellectual Property: 0.31

• Nonresidential Structures: -0.05

• Residential Investment: 0.00

• Federal Government: 0.07

• State and Local Government: 0.17

• Imports: 0.52

• Exports: 0.10

• CIPI: 0.69

2025 Q4 Nowcast Final

• GDP: 3.0 percent (top line estimate)

• Real Final Sales: 2.5 percent (GDP Minus CIPI)

• Real Final Domestic Sales: 2.4 percent

• Real Final Private Domestic Sales: 2.6 percent

2025 Q4 Nowcast Yesterday

• GDP: 3.6 percent (top line estimate)

• Real Final Sales: 2.9 percent (GDP Minus CIPI)

• Real Final Domestic Sales: 2.2 percent

• Real Final Private Domestic Sales: 2.4 percent

The BEA reports GDP tomorrow.

We can compare to the GDPNow final forecast.