So Unlike The Last 10 Years As To Be Shocking

The U.S. stock market boom faces growing risks from government dependency and geopolitical fragmentation.

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Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week.

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Ruchir Sharma writes, “Investors insist that today’s US stock market boom is justified by very strong corporate earnings and is nothing like the dotcom mania. But this expansion is more dependent on government and the earnings story is less exceptional than investors realise.”

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Moreover, as Greg Ip reports, “You can be a red-blooded capitalist and still worry about the political stability of an economy in which ever more output flows toward shareholders instead of employees. A backlash is already brewing.”

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Meanwhile, “The core assumptions underlying the decades-old inflation-targeting orthodoxy have proven to be unfit for a geopolitically fragmented world characterized by frequent supply-side disruptions. Markets have seen the writing on the walls,” notes Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan.

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Furthermore, as Inigo Fraser Jenkins and Robertas Stancikas point out, “The changed role and priorities of the US, the loss of trust in the country and its decision to move away from its post-war role of imposing an order that enabled globalized trade, all make the question of resilience a recurring preoccupation—for portfolio managers as much as for countries.”

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Finally, as Jeremy Grantham puts it, “This could be so unlike the last 10 years as to be shocking.”

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