Silver price extends its losses for the third straight day, down over 2.90%, as Oil prices recover even though US President Donald Trump lifted sanctions on Russian Oil for 30 days, and the US Dollar trades near three-and-a-half-month highs. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $80.16, poised to end the week with nearly 5% losses.
Rising yields, firm Oil prices weigh on XAG/USD despite growing Fed cut bets
Market mood, although positive, remains fragile, with US equities posting gains of between 0.40% and 0.43%. US economic data showed that economic growth took a hit following the 43-day government shutdown, while inflation remains sticky, with no signs of easing, as revealed by the Core PCE.
The second estimate of US Gross Domestic Product for Q4 2025 dipped from 1.4% YoY in the preliminary reading to 0.7%. At the same time, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge remained steady in January at 3.1% YoY, while the headline figure dipped modestly from 2.9% to 2.8% YoY.
Following the GDP release, investors increased their bets on Fed rate cuts in 2026. At the beginning of the session, they were priced at 17 basis points, but as of writing, they expect at least 19.5 basis points of easing, according to Prime Market Terminal.
Source: Prime Market Terminal
The ongoing Middle East conflict is expected to push global inflation higher, after WTI reached a yearly high near $120.00 a barrel early in the week, but as of writing, it sits at $95.90. This has pushed pump prices more than 20% higher to $3.60 per gallon since the beginning of the conflict two weeks ago.
In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck's performance against six currencies, is up 0.61% to 100.35.
US Treasury yields are also up, with the 10-year T-note up 2.5 basis points to 4.287%, a headwind for the non-yielding metal.
President Donald Trump announced the US would take strong action against Iran in the coming week, following a partial 30-day waiver for buying sanctioned Russian Oil.
Traders' focus would remain on geopolitical developments throughout the weekend, before turning to the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 meeting next week. Alongside this, they would eye Industrial Production, housing data, the Producer Price Index (PPI) and jobs data.
XAG/USD Technical outlook: Shor-term, Silver is bearish as sellers target break below $80
The XAG/USD daily chart depicts the near-term bias is mildly bearish as price retreats below the cluster of medium-term simple moving averages around $86–$87 while the remaining are capped by the descending resistance line from $96.62, which now tracks near the mid-$80s. The rejection sequence from the $93.80 area and subsequent lower highs into that trend-line resistance highlight fading upside momentum, with the RSI slipping toward 45 and confirming building downside pressure rather than oversold conditions.
Initial resistance emerges around $83.00, where recent swing highs align beneath the descending trend line, followed by a stronger cap near $86.00 that coincides with the grouped moving averages. A daily close above $86.00 would be needed to ease the bearish tone and re-open the $90.00 region. On the downside, immediate support sits near $78.00, guarding the more important $74.00 area, where prior lows converge with the broader rising trend-line structure from lower levels. A break below $74.00 would expose the next bearish target near $70.00 and confirm a deeper correction within the longer-term uptrend.
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