Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Rebounds To Near $61.00 As US Dollar Comes Under Pressure

• Silver price recovers to near $61.00 as the US Dollar retreats.

• BBH sees the US Dollar outperforming as strong US business data supports hawkish Fed bets.

• Investors keenly await FOMC minutes of the September policy meeting.

Silver price (XAG/USD) holds its recovery move seen in the early European trade from $60.30 to near $61.00 ahead of the opening of United States (US) markets on Tuesday. The white metal bounces back as the US Dollar Index (DXY) retreats after hitting a fresh annual high near 102.54 on Monday to near 101.95, at press time.

Technically, some correction in the US Dollar (USD) offers relief to the Silver price.

However, market experts see the US Dollar outperforming amid the US economic resilience.

Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) argue that the latest US business surveys continue to underpin the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish stance and the Dollar. They note that the "US September ISM indexes back the Fed’s tightening bias and is USD supportive," with the headline services and manufacturing readings "point[ing] to resilient growth" while the "Prices Paid indexes signal inflation pressures are intensifying."

In the BBH view, this backdrop is reflected in market pricing, as "Fed funds futures continue to price in a full 25bps hike to 4.00-4.25% in December."

For fresh cues regarding the US interest rate outlook, investors await Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the September policy meeting, which will be released on Wednesday. In the policy meeting, the Fed hiked policy rates by 25 basis points (bps) to the 3.75%-4.00% and signaled at least one more this year.

Silver Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $61.21, holding a bearish near-term bias as it remains below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $62.99. The pair has retreated from recent highs and is now capped by this short-term trend indicator, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.27 stays in a subdued, mildly bearish territory that hints at persistent downside pressure rather than outright oversold conditions.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at $62.99, and a sustained break above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish tone and open the way for a more constructive recovery. On the downside, momentum conditions reflected by the RSI suggest sellers retain control, leaving XAG/USD vulnerable to further slippage as long as price trades beneath the $62.99 cap.