Silver And The Dow: What Is Happening?

Summary

• The Dow is potentially in a danger zone, close to a peak, but could still continue higher for at least 3 months.

• Silver will likely not peak before the Dow does.

• Silver could potentially make a significant peak within 1 year from now.

• Silver could potentially make an even higher peak between 2032 and 2034.

• Continue to be bullish on silver.

Since 1966, the Dow has made a new nominal all-time high after every significant Dow/Gold ratio peak. It is remarkable that these new nominal all-time high peaks came within 8.12 years of those Dow/Gold ratio peaks.

In the graphic below (the bottom chart) I have highlighted these Dow nominal peaks. The first significant new nominal Dow peak occurred in January 1973, about 7 years after the Dow/Gold ratio peak of January 1966.

The second new nominal Dow peak occurred in October 2007, about 8.12 years after the Dow/Gold ratio peak of August 1999. Even the Dow’s nominal peak of March 1937, though not a new high, came about 7.5 years after the September 1929 Dow/Gold ratio peak.

Currently, it has been about 7.87 months since the latest Dow/Gold ratio peak, which occurred in October 2018. Based on these past patterns, the Dow is in the danger zone and could be at or near a peak. There are no guarantees, but this possibility should not be ignored.

I have previously also written about the relationship between silver peaks and Dow/Gold ratio peaks. The top chart of the graphic above shows those relationships.

Note that the silver peak of February 1974 came about 8 years after the January 1966 Dow/Gold ratio peak, about 1 year after the nominal Dow peak of January 1973. Furthermore, the silver peak of March 2008 came about 8.5 years after the August 1999 Dow/Gold ratio peak (that was 5 months after the nominal Dow peak of October 2007).

If the trend since 1966 continues, then it is very likely that the Dow will peak before silver (possibly between 5 and 12 months before).

If silver and the Dow follow the 1937 path, then the Dow would only peak about 2 years after a silver peak. In such a case the silver peak might even be in already (which is unlikely since a much higher peak than the January 2026 top is expected—more info in my premium updates).

Furthermore, the 1937 path is also unlikely due to the Dow nominal high being lower than the 1929 one.

Another important issue (which I have also previously pointed out) is the fact that there also appears to be a relationship between significant nominal Dow peaks and significant silver peaks (note that these peaks are not necessarily all pointed out on the chart).

The 1929 Dow nominal peak was the all-high (at that time) occurred at the same time as the Dow/Gold ratio peak. Silver made a peak during the Great Depression about 5.83 years after that 1929 Dow nominal peak.

The January 1973 Dow nominal all-time high (at that time) was the peak of the cycle since the post-Great Depression low. Silver peaked about 7 years after that January 1973 Dow nominal peak.

The January 2000 Dow nominal all-time high (at that time) was also a very significant peak. Silver peaked about 8.16 years after that January 2000 nominal peak.

In a similar manner to the three above, silver could potentially peak between 5.83 and 8.16 years after the coming Dow nominal all-time high. If that Dow all-time high occurs this year, then silver could potentially make a significant peak from around 2032 to about 2034.

Silver has much higher to go as illustrated on this chart: