Stock Market Commentary
We are 9 sessions into the beta phase decline of the short-term cycle that began in August.
An extended beta phase decline that moves below the last short-term cycle low (STCL) at 2,840 would reconfirm the current bearish trend and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, a quick rebound followed by a move up to new highs would signal the likely transition to a bullish short-term trend.
S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses
Technical Analysis
The index closed moderately higher today, moving up toward previous highs of the uptrend from June. Technical indicators are slightly bullish overall, tentatively favoring a return to previous highs of the advance.
Cycle Analysis
We are 9 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on August 5. An extended beta phase decline that moves below the last STCL at 2,840 would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, a quick rebound followed by a move up to new highs would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through October 4, with our best estimate being now through September 27.
- Last STCL: August 5, 2019
- Cycle Duration: 36 sessions
- Cycle Translation: Bearish
- Next STCL Window: Now through October 4; best estimate now through September 27.
- Setup Status: No active setups.
- Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
- Signal Status: No active signals.
- Stop Level: None active.
Short-term Outlook
- Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the previous long-term high at 3,026 would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
- Bearish Scenario: A close below the recent short-term low at 2,967 would predict a return to congestion support at the 2,940 level.
The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60 probable).
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